Ntibikiri igitangaza mu Burundi kubona imirambo y'abantu yirirwa yanamye ku gasozi, amasazi atuma. Polisi ishinjwa kwica abaturage amagana. Benshi mu bagiye bakekwaho kurwanya ukwiyamamariza manda ya gatatu kwa Perezida Pierre Nkurunziza, umwuka bawukuwemo bicishijwe amasasu, ibyuma n'ibisongo. Umutekano mucye uri muri iki gihugu uteye inkeke byo ku rwego rwo hejuru.

Si umutekano gusa ugerwa ku mashyi kuko n'ubukungu bwasinzikaye bikomeye kugera aho u Burundi bwisanze ku mwanya w'agahomamunwa wa mbere mu bihugu bikennye kurusha ibindi ku Isi nzima, nk'uko bigaragara ku rutonde ruheruka rw'Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy'Imari [FMI].

Ibijya gucika bica amarenga

Muri Mata umwaka ushize, byose bijya gucika habanje gututumba umwuka mubi mu mujyi wa Bujumbura, benshi bagaragaza ko batazihanganira ko Pierre Nkurunziza yakwiyamamariza manda ya gatatu, ibi ariko ntibyamubujije kubikora, ubundi asa nukojeje agati mu ntozi, abaturage birara mu mihanda barwanya kandidatire ye, ibintu bidogera kuva ubwo.

Imyigaragambyo y'abaturage yakomwe mu nkokora na polisi hifashishijwe ingufu z'umurengera, dore ko abashinzwe umutekano batazuyazaga no gukoresha amasasu ya nyayo barasa ku baturage babaga baririmba bamagana Nkurunziza.

Radio z'ibanze zigenga zose zaratwitswe, hakozwe kudeta irapfuba, Gen Adolph Nshimirimana wari inkoramutima ya Nkurunziza aricwa ndetse n'uyu Mukuru w'Igihugu ubwe yagezwe amajanja, abaturage barenga 200,000 bagana iy'ubuhungiro, muri bo 75,000 bayabangiye ingata bagana mu Rwanda.

Umwaka wa 2015 uko wakomeje ugana ku musozo ni ko u Burundi bwagiye burushaho kugana aharindimuka kugeza magingo aya rukigeretse.

Gutunga agatoki u Rwanda

Muri ibi bihe by'akandare u Burundi bumazemo amezi hafi icumi, inzego za Leta, iz'ubutasi n'ubuyobozi bw'ishyaka riri ku butegetsi muri iki gihugu, CNDD FDD, zashyize imbaraga nyinshi cyane mu gushinja u Rwanda kuba inyuma y'ibibazo byose iki gihugu kirimo.

Ibi biteye kwibaza ibibazo bitari bicye; ese u Rwanda rwaba ari rwo rwongoreye abaturage ngo barwanye kandidatire ya Nkurunziza? Rwaba ari rwo se rwasabye polisi kwica abaturage uruhondogo no gutwika radio zigenga? U Rwanda se rwaba ari rwo rwashinze umutwe w'insoresore zitwaje intwaro wiswe "Imbonerakure" uhitana abaturage ukabacuza utwabo izuba riva? Igisubizo kuri byose nta gushidikanya ko ari “Oya”.

Inzobere mu bya politiki zemeza ko gushinja u Rwanda kuba inyuma y'ibihe by'akaga u Burundi burimo kw'abanyepoliki bo muri iki gihugu babikora mu rwego rwo kuyobya uburari no kurangaza amahanga, kugira ngo amaso akurwe kuri bo yerekezwe ku Rwanda, bityo amabi yose bamaze gukorera abaturage babo agerekwe ku bandi bo bigaramiye.

Gushinja u Rwanda kandi abategetsi bo mu Burundi babibonamo nk'agahendabana kazabafasha kurushaho kunga ubumwe bw'abaturage babumvisha ko umwanzi wabo ari iki gihugu, bityo ikibazo cy'amatora afifitse yagejeje Nkurunziza ku butegetsi ndetse agateza umwaka mubi kigasa n'ikibagiranye.

Imbarutso y'ubushotoranyi

Nke cyane ni inshuro ushobora kumva u Bufaransa bukebura abategetsi b'u Burundi, bubasaba kunamura icumu bagasigaho kwica abaturage, u Bufaransa bufitanye umubano mwiza na Nkurunziza. Ikibazo gikomeye ni ishingiro ryawo.

FDLR imaze imyaka itari micye ikorera mu Burundi nk'uko bigaragara muri raporo zitari nke. Mperutse kuganira n'impuguke mu bya politiki yo mu Karere insobanurira ukuntu uyu mutwe witwaje intwaro mu buryo bwa rwihishwa wakunze gukingirwa ikibaba n'Abafaransa bawubonamo iturufu yazabafasha kubangamira Leta y'u Rwanda ishinja bamwe muri bo barimo Alain Juppé kugira uruhare muri jenoside.

Yakomeje ansobanurira ko u Bufaransa bwihishe inyuma ya Nkurunziza mu buryo butagaragara atari uko bushyigikiye ibyo Leta ayoboye ikora, ahubwo ku mpamvu zifitanye isano na FDLR ndetse no kubangamira u Rwanda.

Iyo mpuguke yansobanuriye ko ubushotoranyi bw'u Burundi ku Rwanda, abategetsi bo muri kiriya gihugu iyo bari kubukora baba bazi neza ko bari gushimisha ba sebuja b'Abafaransa. Ubu bushotoranyi kandi u Burundi bwari bubufatanyije n'ingoma ya Jakaya Kikwete wahoze ayobora Tanzania. Muri make ni umurongo w'imikoranire hagati ya Nkurunziza, Kikwete, FDLR n'Abafaransa.

Gusa Kikwete kuri ubu yigiyeyo nyuma yo gusimburwa ku butegetsi arangije manda ze ebyiri.

Koko hari abagana inyeshyamba zirwanya Nkurunziza baturutse mu Rwanda?

Ni iyihe nyungu u Rwanda rwagira mu guteza umutekano muke mu Burundi? Ese ubundi ni irihe shema rwakurayo? Usesenguye neza usanga nta mpamvu n’imwe ifatika y’ibi birego.

Ingero zagiye zitangwa kuri ibi ntizujuje ubuziranenge na mba. Ngo hafashwe umuntu uvuga i Kinyarwanda n’ibindi nk’ibi. U Rwanda rwakuriye inzira ku murima u Burundi inshuro zitari nke ruvuga ko nta nyungu n’imwe rwagira mu gushaka guhungabanya amahoro n’umutekano w’iki gihugu.

Nta muntu n’umwe uragaragazwa yemeza ko yatumwe n’u Rwanda guhungabanya umutekano mu Burundi.

Kuba haravutse imitwe yitwaje intwaro irwanya ubutegetsi bwa Nkurunziza, nta gushidikanya ko abagize iyo mitwe berekeje amaso mu nkambi z'Abarundi ziri muri Tanzania, Congo Kinshasa no mu Rwanda mu rwego rwo gushaka abarwanyi bayinjiramo. Izi mpunzi zirababaye, ubuhungiro burazirya ku buryo kureshywa n'abazibwira ko bari mu mugambi wo gukuraho ubutegetsi aho zikomoka zibumva vuba. Ubwo ibi ni nde ukwiye kubiryozwa?

Benshi mu bakikije Nkurunziza bazi neza icyababaho ubutegetsi bubavuye mu myanya y'intoki

Inkiko zihora ziryamiye amajanja, zishaka abakoze ibyaha ngo zibaburanishe. Amagana mu Burundi amaze kwicwa n'inzego za Leta zagakwiye kuba ari zo zibarinda.

Nkurunziza n’abambari be bazi neza uko byagenda mu gihe cyose baba bakuwe ubutegetsi mu ntoki, mu gihe cyose u Burundi bwayoborwa n’undi. Batakaza ubudahangarwa bafite ubu, ntibabona ubakingira ikibaba, ntibabona uko bongeragusisibikiranya ibimenyetso kundi ahubwo baryozwa ibyo bakoze, amaraso y’abantu amagana n’amarira ya benshi yomonganiye mu mahanga.

Ibyegera bya Nkurunziza hari benshi bemeza ko ari byo bimutegekera ndetse bikaba biri no kurwana inkundura ikomeye kugirango atava ku butegetsi bikangara.

Umuti nyawo w'ikibazo cy'u Burundi

Umuti w’ibibazo by’u Burundi ufitwe mu ntoki n’Abarundi ubwabo hifashishijwe inzira y'ibiganiro aho gukomeza kuyobya uburari habaho kugereka icyasha ku gihugu gituranyi. Ntabwo ari Amerika, si n'u Rwanda cyangwa se ibihugu by'u Burayi umuti urambye w'ibibazo bya kiriya gihugu uzavamo.

Inzira y’ibiganiro yashyizweho n’abahuza batandukanye niyo ikwiye kuyobokwa, abantu bagashyira hamwe bakirengagiza ibibatanya byose, maze byaba na ngombwa banabona ko amahoro akwiye kugaruka ari uko Perezida Nkurunziza atakiri ku butegetsi, akavaho mu mahoro nta maraso amenetse ukundi.