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Icyizere ku iherezo ry’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu Rwanda gishingira ku ki?

Yanditswe na Rabbi Malo Umucunguzi
Kuya 5 July 2022 saa 06:59
Yasuwe :

Ibiciro ku isoko bikomeje kuzamuka uko bwije n’uko bukeye bitewe n’ingaruka z’intambara yo muri Ukraine, ibihano byafatiwe u Burusiya, utaretse n’ingaruka z’icyorezo cya COVID-19.

Ni ibibazo byose byarushijeho kuremerera umuguzi, aho ibiciro ku isoko mu Rwanda byazamutseho 7.5 ku ijana muri Werurwe 2022, bigera ku 9,9% muri Mata, muri Gicurasi bigera kuri 12.6 ku ijana.

Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe uyobora Ishami rishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, BNR, aheruka kubwira IGIHE ko izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro risa n’irigiye guhagarara.

Icyizere gishingira kuki? Ibi ni bimwe mu byagarutsweho mu kiganiro.

IGIHE: Muri Gashyantare BNR yazamuye inyungu fatizo iva kuri 4.5% igera kuri 5%, kubera izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro ryagaragaraga, ariko bikomeje kuzamuka. Iki cyemezo cyaba gitanga umusaruro?

Prof Kasai: Imibare yari ihari yatwerekaga ko izamuka ry’ibiciro riri kuri 4.3%, ariko ko mu minsi iri imbere ariyo turimo ubu, ibiciro bishobora kuzazamuka cyane, kandi koko ni nako byagenze.

Noneho umuntu ashobora kwibaza ese ko byazamutse, none mukaba mutongeye kuzamura inyungu fatizo? Nk’uko nabivuze, ni ukureba iteganyamibare ngo imbere hazaba hameze hate?

Ubu nubwo tubona bizamuka, iteganyamibare ritwereka ko mu mwaka utaha ibiciro bizaba byatangiye gusubira mu buryo, cyangwa ririya zamuka ry’ibiciro ntabwo rizaba rikiri ku muvuduko uteye inkeke.

Muri uyu mwaka ubona ko umuvuduko uri hejuru nk’uko byagaragaye, ni uko ibintu bituma bizamuka ari ibintu bitari mu mbibi z’u Rwanda, ahubwo ari ibintu bituruka hanze harimo ibikomoka kuri peteroli, harimo gaz, harimo amafumbire mvaruganda…

Ibyo byose rero kubera ko bifite aho bihuriye n’ibindi bikorwa, bituma ibiciro bizamuka.

Iyi nyungu fatizo igira uruhe ruhare ku biciro?

Izamuka ry’inyungu fatizo rifite aho rihurira n’inyungu amabanki yakana hagati yayo, iyo agurizanya amafaranga afite na yo inyungu asabana.

Ubundi bafatira ku nyungu bafitizo ya BNR, bakagira ayo barenzaho. Iyo kuri BNR rero biri kuri 5%, urumva ko nabo bavuga ngo ntabwo turi buyatangire ku giciro cya BNR nubwo yo itayacuruza, ariko ni ukuvuga ko hari banki yayakeneye, ni iyo nyungu twayiheraho.

Cyangwa se bibaye ngombwa ko twayagabanya turi kubona [amafaranga] arimo kuba umurengera (mu mabanki), turayabaka tukayagarura muri BNR, tukabahera kuri iyo nyungu.

Uko kuzamura rero gutuma niba banki yajyaga kwiguriza ku yindi ngo ijye mu bikorwa wenda bishobora no gutuma habaho izamuka ry’ibiciro cyane, iyo yayihenzeho gato birumvikana ko itayafata nk’uko yari kuyafata ahendutse cyangwa ari gutangirwa ubuntu.

Ibyo bikaba bishobora no kugera ku bagana amabanki bayigurizamo, ariko byo ntabwo bihita biba uwo mwanya, bifata igihe ngo bigere yo.

Uko bigenda bifata igihe go bigereyo akaba ari bwo bigenda bigabanya umuvuduko w’ibindi biciro kuko ibiciro byose ubundi bifitanye isano.

Iyo amafaranga yabaye menshi ibiciro birazamuka cyane, kuko abakenera ibicuruzwa baba babaye benshi, ibicuruzwa bitazamutse ku muvuduko umwe nk’uwo tubona ku rwego rw’amafaranga.

Iyo umuvuduko w’amafaranga uri hejuru, Banki Nkuru izamura inyungu fatizo.

Bimwe mu bicuruzwa byahenze cyane biva muri Ukraine n’u Burusiya kandi intambara yabyo ishobora gutinda, na COVID-19 ikabyutsa umutwe. Ntibishobora gukomeza ikibazo cy’ibiciro?

Muri Gashyantare akanama gashinzwe politiki y’ifaranga gaterana, intambara yari itaratangira.

Icyo kihe byari byitezwe kuzamuka biturutse ku bukungu bw’isi bwari bwitezweho kuzahuka ku rugero rushimishije, noneho bigatuma abantu ku isi bakenera ibicuruzwa cyane, ibiciro byabyo bikazamuka.

Ibyumweru bibiri nyuma yaho nibwo intambara yatangiye.

Iyo ntambara yatumye ibyo biciro twabonaga ko bizazamuka noneho byihuta kurusha uko twabitekerezaga, kuko hari ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe dufashe nk’ingano, tugafata gaz, tugafata ifumbire mvaruganda, ibyinshi bituruka mri biriya bihugu, Ukraine n‘u Burusiya.

Kuba rero biri mu ntambara, noneho hakaza kujyaho n’ibyemezo byo guhana u Burusiya - u Burusiya ntabwo buri mu ntambara ariko ibivayo nabyo biri mu bihano, ntibigomba kuvayo nk’uko byagayo, ariko n’inkeke bariho zishobora kubangamira ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga.

Ariko n’imbaraga z’ibindi bihugu biri gushyira muri iyo ntambara, urumva ko imbaraga ziva mu bindi bikorwa bikajya muri iyo ntambara.

Nubwo mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe intambara iba itagezeyo nyirizina, ariko ubushobozi bwinshi babwohereza muri Ukraine kugira ngo bagerageze guhangana n’iyo ntambara mu bikoresho, amafaranga… Ibyo byose bigira ingaruka ku bukungu bw’isi.

Birashoboka ko intambara ishobora kumara igihe, [icyo gihe] hatangira gushyirwaho ubundi buryo bwo kubona ibyakorerwaga muri ibyo bihugu.

Dufate urugero nko kuri peteroli yava mu Burusiya, muri Amerika bakavuga bati tugiye gufata ku yo twari tumaze igihe tuzigama, tugiye kuyirekura ijye ku isoko, bikaba byatuma ibiciro bya peteroli bitazamuka.

Hari ibindi bihugu byinshi bicurukura peteroli, bitacukuraga ku kigero umuntu yavuga ko bamaririje peteroli yabo yose, kuko bagendaga bagira aho batarenza kugira ngo nabwo badahomba, kuko abayicuruza aba ari benshi, bakumvikana iyo bacukura n’iurugero batarenza.

Iki kibazo gikomeje, u Burusiya bukaba mu bihano bimaze igihe, ibyo bihugu byakongera umusaruro wabyo kuko babifitiye ubushobozi.

Kuri gaz naho ni nk’uko, hari ibihugu bishobora kuba byakora gaz, biramutse bitinze bakabona ko mu Burusiya ikibazo kitazakemuka vuba, ubwo barongera bagakora indi, ariko no mu bindi byose haba mu ifumbire mvaruganda, abantu bashobora kwiga ubundi buryo.

Mu bijyanye n’ibiciro byo umuvuduko uzamanuka, mu mwaka utaha bizagenda bisubira kuri wa mubare fatizo wa 5 ku ijana.

Umwaka utaha tuzajya kuwusoza twaramaze gusubira kuri icyo kigero kinogeye ubukungu bw’u Rwanda.

Ni ukuvuga ko muri uyu mwaka ibiciro bigomba kuguma hejuru?

Uyu mwaka izamuka riri hejuru ya 8% twifuza ko tutarenga, ariko ni ibibazo biri guturuka hanze y’u Rwanda, ni ibibazo biri ku isi yose.

Ni gute umuturage yabasha kubaho mu bihe nk’ibi?

Icya mbere ni uguhumuriza abantu ko atari ibintu buzaramba, ni ibintu by’igihe gito. Iyo haje ibintu by’igihe gito rero birimo kubangamira imibereho yawe, ni ukongera gusubira mu mibare, ukavuga uti ibikenerwa byanjye, ibyo nasimbuza ibindi ni ibihe?

Ni ukuvuga nk’icyo gihe hari ibyo utareka, ibikoresho by’ibanze, ariko ibitari iby’ibanze ugerageza kugenda ubigabanya, ukajya mu by’ibanze, mu bigufasha mu buzima bwa buri munsi, aho bikenewe ibyo wakoraga bimwe ukabihindura, utegereje ko ibihe byongera kujya mu buryo.

Igihari ni uko ibyo biciro bishobora kuba bitazongera no kuzamuka cyane, ariko aho byamaze kugera naho ni hejuru.

Bishobora kutazamuka muri iki gice gisigaye cy’uyu mwaka, ariko cya gipimo kirakomeza kubaho kuko niba urimo kubigereranya n’iby’umwaka ushize, uzajya ubona byagumye hejuru kandi wenda byagumye ku kigero cyo mu kwezi kwa kane, yangwa ukwa gatanu.

Ariko icyo umuntu yavuga ni uko iryo zamuka atari iry’igihe kirekire, ni igihe gito.

Icyo umuntu yabwira abadukurikira ni ugusubira mu mibare umuntu akareba iby’ibanze, akaba ari byo buri muntu wese yibandaho, ibitari ibyibanze ukabigabany
Ni izihe ngaruka ibintu nk’ibi bigira ku bukungu?a.

Ku izamuka ry’ubukungu naho bigiraho ingaruka, kuko muri uyu mwaka twari twizeye ko bushobora kuzamuka bukagera kuri 7.2%, ubungubu iteganyamibare rierekana ko bishobora kuba hasi gato y’iyo 7%.

Kandi impamvu nyamukuru ni ibyo bibazo.

Intambara yo muri Ukraine ituma ibiciro bizamuka, hakaba na COVID-19 yongeye gusa nk‘aho ikaza umurego mu bihugu byo muri Aziya, cyane yane mu Bushinwa ahava ibicuruzwa byinshi.

Birashoboka ko ibiciro byazasubira aho byahoze?

Byasubira inyuma, biterwa n’igicuruzwa n’icyateye kuzamuka.

Isukari mu byatumye izamuka harimo ko inganda ziyikora zari ziri kwivugurura, icyo gihe isukari zakoraga iragabanyuka.

Ubwo igihe zitangiye gukora bigasubira mu buryo, ho igiciro kiragabanyuka birumvikana. Na peteroli na yo ni uko, muzi ko mu myaka ibiri ishize ibiciro bya peteroli byari birimo kugenda bigabanyuka ku rwego mpuzamahanga.

N’ubu kiriya kibazo cyo muri Ukraine kirangiye, birumvikana ko peteroli nacyo igiciro, umuvuduko ushobora kugabanyuka, ku buryo gishobora kongera kigasubira hasi.

Cyangwa se biriya bihugu, n’iyo ikibazo kitarangira ubu, ibihugu bifite ububiko bwinshi bwa peteroli nabyo bigatangira kugabanya kuri bwa bubiko, nabyo byatuma igiciro kigabanyuka.

Ubwo rero hano biterwa n’impamvu yatumye ibyo biciro bizamuka, noneho n’ingamba zafashwe.

Ibindi bishobora gutuma ibiciro bimanuka, ni nk’ibiribwa. Iyo ikirere kitameze neza nko mu karere, usanga ibiciro byazamutse. Ikirere cyagenda neza, ibiciro bikongera bikamanuka.

Uretse ibicuruzwa bituruka hanze, musanga biterwa n’iki kuba n’ibikorerwa imberere mu Rwanda birimo guhenda?

Ibiribwa ku rwego mpuzamahanga ibiciro byarazamutse, ariko no ku rwego rw’u Rwanda, ikirere uzi ko twavugaga ngo imvura yatinze kuboneka mu gihembwe A.

Ubundi twari twiteze ko imvura yagombaga gutangira mu kwezi kwa cyenda mu mwaka ushize, muzi ko yatinze.

Iyo itinze rero n’abahinzi ubwo batinda gutangira ihinga. Iyo baritangiye nabwo igihembwe cy’ihinga kikaza kidasa n’ibisanzwe, hari igihe bibagora kumenya igihe cyo guhingira, cyangwa igihe bahingiye imyaka ntiyere neza.

Uretse ibitumizwa mu mahanga, n'ibiribwa byera imbere mu gihugu nabyo byarahenze cyane

Mu gihe ibiciro bitameze neza, mu gihembwe cya mbere cy’uyu mwaka ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakaje agaciro munsi ya 1%. Byagenze bite?

Ubundi igishobora gutuma ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rigabanyuka ugereranyije n’irinyamahanga, hano reka tuvuge idolari rya Amerika, ikibitera ni ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo dutumiza mu mahanga n’ibyo twoherezayo, mu gaciro.

Bityo, ibyo twoherezayo biracyari bike ugereranyije n’ibyo tuvanayo, ni ukuvuga ngo dukenera amadovize menshi, aruta ayo twinjiza.

Icyo gihe birumvikana rero ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rigenda rigabanya agaciro.

Muri uyu mwaka rero, yego ako gaciro karagabanyutse ariko ku muvuduko uri hasi ugereranyije n’umwaka wawubanjirije.

Ibi bijyanye n’indi mibare yatangajwe na Banki Bkuru y’u Rwanda, igaragaza ko ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byarazamtse ku kigero cyo hejuru, ibicuruwa na serivisi byoherezwa mu mahanga byazamutse ho 44.6% mu gihembwe cya mbere. Urumva ko ari umubare muini cyane.

Ibitumizwayo nabyo byarazamutse, ariko ntabwo byazamutse kuri icyo kigero, byo byazamutse ku kigero cya 14.2%.

Impamvu nyamakuru zabiteye ni ebyiri: agaciro k’ibyo twohereza mu mahanga abanyarwanda bamenyereye cyarazamutse, ku cyayi, ku ikawa no ku mabuye y’agaciro aturuka mu Rwanda, ibyo byatumye mu gaciro, amadovize tuvana mu byo twohereza hanze yariyongereye.

Nka kuriya tuvuga tuti kuzamuka kw’ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga ni ibibi, ni bibi ku byo dutumiza ariko bikaba byiza ku byo twoherezayo, urumva ntabwo byaba bibi kuri byose ngo binabe byoza kuri byose.

Icya kabiri ni ibikomoka mu nganda, politiki y’u Rwanda na Made in Rwanda, ibikorerwa mu nganda z’u Rwanda byariyongereye, noneho byoherezwa mu mahanga biri kukigero kiri hejuru y’icyari gisanzwe.

Iyo mukora iteganyamibare mubona ifaranga rizakomeza kwitwara neza no mu bihe biri imbere?

Urebye uyu mwaka wo, mu by’ukuri tubona ko nta gitutu kiri hejuru kiri ku isoko ry’ivunjisha.

Ntabwo tuvuze wenda ngo amafaranga y’u Rwanda watangaga ku madolari azagabanyuka (appreciation), ariko gutakaza agaciro (depression) bizaba ku kigero cyo hasi.

Ntabwo duteganya ko gutakaza agaciro bizaba ku kigero cyo hejuru kuko hari byinshi bikorwa, harimo nk’ingamba za leta zo gukomeza kuzahura ubukerarugendo.

Hari izi nama zikorerwa mu Rwanda, ibi byose byongera amadevize yinjira mu Rwanda, bigatuma tubona igabanyuka ry’agaciro riri hejuru.

Hari abantu bahora bumva igabanyuka ry’agaciro bakavuga ngo ese ni ryari kaziyongera. Ni igihe icyo cyuho hagati y’ibitumizwa n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga tuzaba twakizibye, usibye ko ibihugu biziba icyo cyuho atari byinshi.

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