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Gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga, kuzamuka kw’ibiciro ku masoko, inyungu fatizo ya BNR…Ikiganiro n’ushinzwe Politiki y’ifaranga

Yanditswe na Philbert Girinema
Kuya 8 March 2022 saa 07:05
Yasuwe :

Ubukungu bw’igihugu ni ingingo ihora iteka iraje ishinga abantu bose kuko ikora ku mibereho yabo ya buri munsi mu buryo bumwe cyangwa ubundi.

Magingo aya, iyo uganiriye n’umuntu azakumvisha uburyo ifaranga ry’u Rwanda mu minsi iri imbere rizaba rimeze nk’igipapuro kurigira ntacyo bimaze, hari n’abo muzavugana bakakumvisha uburyo ubu ntacyo rikigura.

Mu gushaka gusobanukirwa neza ibijyanye n’ugutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga hamwe n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko, IGIHE yaganiriye na Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe uyobora Ishami rishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, BNR.

IGIHE: Izamuka ry’ibiciro n’itakazagaciro k’ifaranga bitandukaniye he?

Prof Kasai: Ubundi “Inflation” tujya tugenekereza tukavuga ko ari ihindagurika ry’ibiciro ku isoko, naho “Depreciation” tukavuga ko ari itakazagaciro k’ifaranga ku isoko ry’ivunjisha.

Tugaruke rero kuri ’Inflation’ ari ryo hindagurika ry’ibiciro ku isoko, ubwo ni ibijyanye n’ibicuruzwa na serivisi hano mu Rwanda.

Iyo tuvuze ngo “inflation”, tuba tuvuze uburyo ibiciro byahindutse, ubundi tubifata mu ijanisha. Tubifata muri rusange, nk’agatebo, ntabwo tureba igicuruzwa cyangwa serivisi imwe, tureba ibyo Umunyarwanda akunda kuba afite mu byo ahaha.

Ufashe urugero harimo ibyo kurya, amazi, amashanyarazi, imyambaro, amafaranga y’ishuri n’ibindi byose Umunyarwanda akenera muri rusange bikajya hamwe.

Nyuma habaho agatebo k’ibyo umunyarwanda akenera, ako gatebo ukavuga ngo igiciro cy’ako gatebo cyahindutseho 0,8% .

Ubwo biba bivuze ko nyuma y’umwaka cyangwa nyuma y’amezi 12, ako gatebo niba kaguraga 100 Frw, ubwo kari kugura 100,8 Frw. Ubwo ni ukuvuga ko tubifatiye ku mpuzandengo icyaguraga 100 Frw mu 2020, kiri kugura 100,8 Frw mu 2021.

Naho ugutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga bibaho ryari?

“Depreciation”, navuze ko ari itakazagaciro k’ifaranga urigereranyije n’irindi ry’irinyamahanga ariko akenshi iryo tureba cyane ni idolari kuko ari ryo ibihugu byinshi bireberaho uko ifaranga ryabo rihagaze.

Ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rihagaze rite ubu?

Dufashe nk’umwaka ushize tuvuga ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatakaje agaciro ku rugero rwa 3,8% aho ndafata ku ijana n’ubundi nubwo atari ko idolari rivunjwa kugira ngo byumvikane. Ni ukuvuga ko aho wari gutanga amafaranga 100 Frw uri kugura amadolari, nyuma y’amezi 12 uvuze ko ifaranga ryatakaje agaciro 3,8%, ubwo aho wari gutanga 100 Frw uri butange 103,8 Frw.

Itakazagaciro riterwa n’ikinyuranyo cy’ibyo igihugu cyohereza mu mahanga n’ibyo kivanayo. Ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byinjiza amadevize, ibivanwayo bikayatwara. Iyo harimo ikinyuranyo rero ni byo bishobora gutuma ifaranga ryongera agaciro cyangwa rigatakaza.

Ni ryari rero kiyongera, ni ryari kagabanuka?

Ritakaza agaciro iyo ibyo twohereza mu mahanga ari bike kurusha ibyo tuvanayo kandi ni ko bimeze ku Rwanda. Ni ukuvuga iyo miterere yo kuba ibyo twohereza mu mahanga bifite agaciro katangana n’ibyo dukenerayo , ni byo bizana icyo kinyuranyo bigatuma ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ritakaza agaciro ugereranyije n’idolari.

Icyo navuga cyiza ku byo tubona, burya nta n’ubwo kajya gatakara cyane. Hari igihe umuntu yumva ngo [idolaribyageze ku 1000 Frw akavuga ngo agaciro katakaye cyane. Kuba dufite ikinyuranyo mu byo twohereza n’ibyo tuvana mu mahanga byo biba byitezwe ko irinyarwanda urigereranyije n’idolari agaciro kagenda kagabanuka ku ifaranga ry’u Rwanda.

Ako gaciro gatakara ku wuhe muvuduko?

Mfatiye ku rugero rwa Afurika, murabizi ko uyu mugabane unafite gahunda yo kureba uko wagira ifaranga rimwe mu myaka iri imbere. Iyo biha intego zo kugira ibyo bageraho nk’umugabane biha ibipimo ntarengwa. Igipimo ntarengwa ku itakazagaciro k’ifaranga rya buri gihugu ni 10% buri mwaka.

U Rwanda ntirujya rugera ku 10%, ubwo aho ni ukugira ngo twumvikanishe ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ridata agaciro nk’uko umuntu utabisobanuriwe binyuze mu buryo bw’imibare yabyumva.

Nk’ubu iyo dufashe impuzandengo y’imyaka 10 ishize, ifaranga ry’u Rwanda buri mwaka ritakaza agaciro kangana na 5,1%.

Urumva umubare Afurika yiha ni 10 % tutagomba kurenza; ni wo mubare munini, ubwo uri munsi ya 10% biba bimeze neza. Twe rero tuba turi hagati aho.

Urumva ko aho wari gutanga amafaranga 100 Frw uyu mwaka, umwaka ukurikiyeho ugenekereje ushobora gutanga amafaranga 105. Ubwo kandi nk’uko nabivuze biterwa na cya kinyuranyo cy’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga n’ibivanwayo.

Ikindi cyiza umuntu yavuga, ni uko ikinyuranyo dufite iyo urebye usanga ahanini ari ibintu byinjira mu ishoramari; ni ukuvuga ibikenerwa mu nganda n’ibyubaka ibikorwa birambye. Iyo ikinyuranyo kiri guturuka muri ibyo ni ukuvuga ko biba bigamije kubaka ubushobozi bw’igihugu.

Kuba hari kubakwa ubushobozi bw’igihugu rero ubwo biba biri gutanga icyizere ko icyo kinyuranyo kizageraho kikazibwa.

Haba hari aho bihuriye n’ibiciro ku isoko

Ihindagurika ry’ibiciro ku isoko ryo ntabwo riterwa n’ikinyuranyo cy’ibitumizwa mu mahanga kuko ubu tuba turi kuvuga mu gihugu imbere.

Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe yagaragaje ko BNR ukurikiranira hafi ihindagurika ry'agaciro k'ifaranga ry'u Rwanda ngo ridahungabana

Iyo abaguzi bari gusaba byinshi bikenewe kurusha umusaruro uri mu gihugu mu buryo bwa rusange, ibyo bituma ibiciro bizamuka. Ubwo byo bihita byumvikana ko iyo abaguzi babaye benshi ibyo kugura ari bike, ibiciro birazamuka.

Urundi ruhande narwo rushoboka, ni iyo abagura babaye bake kurusha umusaruro, ibiciro biragabanuka. Uzabibona iyo imyaka nk’ibigori cyangwa ibishyimbo byeze biba ari byinshi kurusha ibikenewe uyu mwanya.

Ubwo BNR ibyo yabikoraho iki?

Icyo dukora nka BNR ni ukureba ko bitamanuka bikajya munsi ya 2% cyangwa ngo bizamuke bijye hejuru ya 8%. Ubundi ikigereranyo fatizo cya BNR cyangwa cy’igihugu ni 5%, ariko ntibivuze ko bihora bihagaze aho kuko bishobora kumanuka cyangwa bikazamuka bitewe n’impinduka zabayeho mu bukungu wenda nko mu biribwa ikirere cyabaye kibi cyangwa nk’ibitumizwa mu mahanga hari impamvu zatumye bizamuka, dufate urugero nko kuri COVID-19.

Icyo BNR ikora rero ni uguhora ishakisha uburyo byongera kugaruka hafi ya 5% ari yo mpamvu igenda ifata ibyemezo binyuranye bitewe n’aho ibona icyerekezo cy’ibiciro kigana.

Hanyuma kuba muri iki gihe imipaka iri kugenda ifungurwa, bivuze iki ku ifaranga ry’u Rwanda?

Kuba imipaka yafunguwe cyangwa kuba ubuhahirane bugenda busubiraho kuko inzitizi za COVID-19 zigenda zigabanuka bitewe n’ingamba ibihugu byafashe zirimo n’inkingo, bifite ingaruka nziza ku gihugu cyacu kuko ntiwavuga ngo harimo ingaruka mbi kuko u Rwanda rufite ubushobozi bwo kuvuga ngo ntiruhahirane n’amahanga, rwabireka ariko buri gihe guhahirana biba ari byiza.

Uko guhahirana tubifitemo inyungu kuko iyo habayeho ubwo buhahirane natwe hari ibyo twohereza mu mahanga. Urugero; ufashe ibyo twohereje mu mahanga umwaka ushize ugereranyije n’ibyoherejweyo mu 2020, usanga byariyongereyeho 53% karengaho ibice.

Urumva ko kuba ubuhahirane butangiye gusubira mu buryo byaduhaye amahirwe y’uko ibyo twohereza mu mahanga byiyongereye ku kigero kirenga 16%.

Mu yandi magambo rero ntabwo ibyo ari inzitizi ahubwo umuntu yavuga ko ari ibikomeza kudufasha kuzamura ubukungu bwacu ariko na none no kuzaziba icyo cyuho. Nubwo tutarabigeraho, murabizi ko hari gahunda nyinshi zirimo nka Made In Rwanda, igihugu kiri kubaka ubushobozi, iyo umaze kubwubaka icyo kinyuranyo kiragabanuka.

Hari ibihugu bijya bitakaza agaciro k’ifaranga ku bushake ariko u Rwanda ntirurimo kuko ku bijyanye n’isoko ry’ivunjisha, ibiciro bishyirwaho n’umuguzi cyangwa ugurisha cyangwa abafite amadevize hamwe n’abayakeneye. Ubwo umuntu afatiye nk’aho honyine, ufashe ririya janisha wabona ko atari bibi. Ahubwo hari n’abavuga ngo ko ari rito ugereranyije n’ibindi bihugu bikiri mu nzira y’amajyambere.

Biterwa n’iki ngo igihugu giteshe agaciro ifaranga ryacyo ku bushake?

Navuze ko u Rwanda rwo rudakora ibyo ahubwo tubireka tukita ku byo twiyemeje nk’igihugu ko ubwumvikane hagati y’ukeneye amadevize n’uyagurisha ari byo bishyiraho igiciro.

Ibihugu bikora ibyo ku bushake, bibikora byifashishije uburyo butandukanye burimo nko kugurisha amadevize bafite kugira ngo ifaranga ryabo rite agaciro maze bashobore kohereza ibintu byinshi mu mahanga. U Rwanda si iyo ntego rufite rero ahubwo rwifuza kongera ibyo rwohereza mu mahanga kandi rudatakaje agaciro k’ifaranga ryarwo.

Hari ababikora babigambiriye rero abandi bakanabamagana bavuga ko biri kubabangamira, ibindi bihugu bikorana nabo ubucuruzi ariko hari ababikora bagira ngo berekane ko ibyo bari kohereza mu mahanga byumvikane ko biri kugura make maze hoherezwe byinshi ariko nk’uko nabivuze u Rwanda si icyo twifuza.

Mufite ngamba ki zo guhangana n’ubwiyongere bw’ibiciro ku masoko?

Ingamba zihari zo guhangana n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko nahita nkubwira ko ari icyemezo akanama gashinzwe politiki y’ifaranga muri BNR kafashe mu minsi ishize, aho hafashwe icyemezo cyo kuzamura inyungu fatizo ya BNR iva kuri 4,5% igashyirwa kuri 5%.

Mu mwanya nakubwiye ko kuri 5% nta kibazo kiba gihari kuko nko mu kwezi kwa mbere k’uyu mwaka, ukugereranyije n’uk’umwaka ushize, ibiciro byiyongereyeho 4,3%. Ni ukuvuga ko aho turi ari ho twifuza nk’igihugu kuko turi hafi ya 5%.

Ubu ntabwo turi gukumira kubera ibyabaye mu kwezi kwa mbere kuko byo byari na byiza. Ubundi ihindagurika ry’ibiciro riri kuri 5% bavuga ko rifasha ubukungu kuzamuka neza mu buryo burambye.
Icyo dukora mu gukumira ni ibyemezo nk’ibyo. Akanama ka politiki y’ifaranga muri BNR gaterana buri gihembwe n’igihe bibaye ngombwa. Kugeza ubu gaterana buri gihembwe kuko kaba kabona nta yindi mpamvu iri butume gaterana hagati aho.

Kubera ubukungu buri kuzamuka neza ; bwaba ubw’Isi, bwaba ubukungu bw’u Rwanda uko buzamuka ni uko ibikenerwa ku isoko bigenda biba byinshi bigatuma ibiciro byabyo bizamuka twebwe rero nka BNR cyangwa n’izindi banki nkuru z’ibihugu zisobanutse, ntabwo zifata ibyemezo kubera ibyabaye ahubwo ukora iteganyamibare ukibaza ku bishobora gukumirwa mbere y’uko biba.

Iteganyamibare rero ryerekana ko ihindagurika ry’ibiciro muri uyu mwaka rishobora kugera kuri 7,5% mu gihe BNR yaba ikumiriye, idakumiriye bivuze ko byarenga 8% twihaye nk’umubare wo hejuru ntarengwa nk’igihugu. Ku kwezi kumwe bishobora kuzamuka bikagera ku 9% ariko ubaze umwaka wose ntabwo tuba twifuza ko byarenga 8%.

Mu gukumira rero, icyemezo giherutse gufatwa ni uko inyungu fatizo ku nguzanyo izamurwaho kugira ngo rya hindagurika ritarenga 8%.

Iyo tuvuze inyungu fatizo ya BNR ubu iri kuri 5% kuko ari yo andi mabanki areberaho anagurizanya hagati yayo, birashoboka ko bazongeraho gato; bishobora kuba munsi cyangwa bikaba binangana ariko icyakwitegwa ni uko inyungu amabanki yakana iyo agurizanya hagati yayo, ishobora kwiyongeraho gato.

Uko bigenda byiyongera ni ko bishobora kugera ku zindi nguzanyo ariko nk’inguzanyo zihabwa abagana amabanki akenshi turabizi ko nko mu Rwanda aba ari inguzanyo z’igihe kirekire kandi zidahindagurika.

Nk’ubu niba wari ufite amasezerano y’inguzanyo wishyura inyungu ya 16% ntabwo bari buhite bayihindura. Wenda abashya bari bugane amabanki bishobora guhinduka ariko nabwo bitinzeho gato kuko ntabwo bihita biba uwo munsi ; ni ibintu bigenda nk’uruhererekane.

Uriya mubare wa 5% niwo ubereye ubukungu bw’u Rwanda muri iki gihe tugezemo no mu mezi ari imbere. Ubwo rero urwo rugero ni rwo rwiza mu gukomeza gufasha ubukungu bw’u Rwanda cyane cyane muri ibi bihe turi mu izahuka ry’ubukungu.

Ihindagurika ry’ibiciro ku isoko rero ribangamira ubukungu bw’igihugu ari nayo mpamvu hafashwe icyo cyemezo mu gukomeza gufasha ngo izahuka ry’ubukungu bw’igihugu ntiribangamirwe.

Ubwo ni ugushyira ku rugero izahuka riri bukomeze kuba ku buryo umuntu yabona ko buri bumare igihe kirekire ntibubangamirwe n’ihindagurika ry’ibiciro.


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