Muri uwo mwaka ubwo bukungu bwagabanutse ku kigero cya 1,2%, bamwe bati ’nyamara iby’u Burusiya bishobora kurangira nk’ibyo mu 1990’ ubwo Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyete zasenyukaga, nyuma y’imyaka ubukungu bwarahungabanye bikomeye.

Icyakora nta minsi yashize kuko muri Mata 2023, iri zamuka ry’ibiciro ryari ryamanutse cyane ryageze kuri 2.3%, ubukungu nabwo buzamuka ku kigero cya 3,6% muri uwo mwaka. Ku rundi ruhande, Perezida Vladimir Putin yabaga ari kwivuga imyato, inshuro nyinshi agakunda gusubiramo ko ibihano karundura byafatiwe igihugu cye nta ngaruka bizagira ku bukungu bwacyo.

Icyakora ubanza uvuga aba atarabona. Nyuma y’imyaka irenga ibiri n’igice u Burusiya buhanganye na Ukraine mu ntambara, bisa n’aho ibihano by’ubukungu bwafatiwe ari bwo bitangiye kugira ingaruka zifatika, ingingo yagarutsweho na Perezida Biden wigeze kubazwa impamvu ibihano byafatiwe u Burusiya bitari kugira ingaruka zifatika, agasobanura ko ari ibintu bizafata igihe kirekire.

Ibimenyetso by’ibanze byerekana uburyo u Burusiya bwugarijwe, bibonekera ku ifaranga ryabwo, rizwi nka ’ruble.’ Iri faranga ryataye agaciro ugereranyije n’idolari ku kigero kitaherukaga mu myaka ya vuba. Magingo aya, idolari rimwe rivunjwa ama-ruble 107 nyamara muri Kanama uyu mwaka, ryavunjaga 83. Muri make iri faranga ryataye agaciro ku kigero cya 28% ugereranyije n’idolari, mu mezi atanu gusa.

Intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine yarushijeho gusubiza ibintu inyuma ariko gutakaza agaciro k’iri faranga kwari kumaze igihe. Nk’ubu umwarimu wahembwaga ibihumbi 80 by’ama-ruble mu myaka 10 ishize, yayavunjagamo 2,500$. Magingo aya, uyu mwarimu ashobora kuyavunjamo ari munsi ya 1000$.

Ubukungu burazamuka, umusaruro wabwo ukabura

Muri Nyakanga uyu mwaka, Banki y’Isi yazamuye ubukungu bw’u Burusiya, bushyirwa mu cyiciro by’ubukungu bwateye imbere (high income) buvuye mu cyiciro cya ’Upper-middle-income’.

Umusaruro w’umuturage w’u Burusiya, ku mpuzandengo, wari hejuru y’ibihumbi 14$ mu 2023 ndetse icyo gihe, ubukungu bw’u Burusiya bwazamutse ku kigero cya 3,6%.

Uramutse ugarukiye aha, wabona ko nubwo u Burusiya buri mu ntambara, ingaruka iri kugira ku bukungu bwabwo ari nke cyangwa se ntazo, icyakora ni ingenzi gusuzuma impamvu n’uburyo ubu bukungu buri kuzamuka.

Icya mbere ni uko u Burusiya buri gukoresha amafaranga menshi mu ntambara. Ingengo y’imari y’igisirikare yavuye kuri miliyari 86$ mu 2022 igera kuri miliyari 100$ mu 2023, uyu mwaka ukaba ushobora gusiga zigeze kuri miliyari zirenga 140$. Muri make, hafi 40% by’ingengo y’imari y’uyu mwaka izakoreshwa mu bikorwa bifitanye isano n’intambara yo muri Ukraine.

Ikindi ni uko iyi ngengo y’imari itarimo amafaranga akoreshwa mu bikorwa bya gisirikare bigirwa ibanga, kubera impamvu z’umutekano. Ingengo y’imari izakoreshwa n’igisirikare izaba iruta izashorwa mu nzego zirimo uburezi n’ubuzima ndetse n’urwego rwo kwita ku bafite intege nke.

Ayo mafaranga akoreshwa mu bijyanye n’igisirikare agize hafi 8% by’umusaruro mbumbe wose w’u Burusiya, avuye hagati ya 2% na 3% yakoreshwaga mbere y’intambara.

Uramutse ubaze inyungu u Burusiya bwinjije iturutse mu baturage bayo n’ibigo by’ubucuruzi (national income), usanga 6% yose azakoreshwa mu bijyanye n’intambara yo muri Ukraine muri uyu mwaka. Impuzandengo yo ku rwego rw’Isi ikunze kuba iri hagati ya 2% na 3%.

Ubukene nk’ikiguzi cy’umutekano

Kuva mu myaka ibihumbi ishize, ububi bw’intambara bwakomeje gutuma abafilozofe benshi bibaza impamvu bigera ubwo abantu bahitamo kurwana, aho gushaka ibindi bisubizo. Henry David Thoreau yibajije ikiguzi cy’intambara ugereranyije n’amahoro, ati "Ni ikihe kiguzi cy’amahoro? Niba ikiguzi cy’intambara ari ukwangiza, ikiguzi cy’amahoro cyakabaye kwitwararika no kwirengagiza [kureba] ku nyungu ziciriritse (zituma habaho intambara)."

Icyakora iri ni isomo abantu twananiwe kwiga kuva twatangira ubuzima ku Isi, ndetse n’uyu munsi ntituriga iri somo kandi bisa n’aho tutazanaryiga.

Benshi mu basesenguzi imbere mu Burusiya bakomeje kwibaza niba intambara igihugu cyabo cyishoyemo na Ukraine yari ngombwa, cyane ko uretse ikiguzi cy’abantu, aho bitekerezwa ko abarenga ibihumbi 500 bapfuye cyangwa bagakomereka, ikiguzi ku bukungu bw’abanyagihugu bose nacyo kiri kwiyongera.

Duhereye nko ku kiguzi cy’abantu, u Burusiya busanganywe ikibazo gikomeye cy’igabanuka ry’abaturage, nk’uko bimeze mu bihugu byinshi byateye imbere. Mbere y’uko iyi ntambara itangira, umugore umwe mu Burusiya yabarirwaga umwana 1.42. Kugira ngo sosiyete runaka ikomeze kororoka ku kigero gikwiriye, umugore umwe aba agomba kubyara nibura abana 2.1 ku mpuzandengo.

Mu mwaka ushize, Abarusiya bari miliyoni 145, icyakora imibare y’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ikavuga ko bazaba ari miliyoni 120 mu 2070, bingana n’igabanuka rya 17%. Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari, IMF, kivuga ko bigenze gutyo, ubukungu bw’u Burusiya bwajya butakaza izamuka rya 0.5% kubera iri gabanuka.

Ikibazo cy’igabanuka kirakomeye cyane ku buryo ku wa 12 Ugushyingo 2024, Inteko Ishinga Amategeko yatoye itegeko rizajya rihana abantu bakwirakwiza inyigisho zigamije kubuza abaturage kubyara, benshi bakemeza ko iri tegeko rigamije guca intege abaryamana bahuje igitsina.

Icyakora ibi bibazo byose byarushijeho kwiyongera kubera intambara, dore ko kuva yatangira, habarurwa nibura abaturage barenga miliyoni imwe bahunze, benshi bakabamo abagabo n’abasore bakiri bato, bahungaga kujyanwa ku rugamba ku ngufu.

Mu guhangana n’iki kibazo, u Burusiya bwashoye akayabo mu gushishikariza abaturage kugana iy’urugamba. Mu bice bimwe by’igihugu, abemeye kujya ku rugamba bahabwa agahimbazamusyi kangana n’impuzandengo y’umushahara ku mwaka, mbega ni ya mafaranga ahindura ubuzima. Nk’urugero, umuntu ufite ideni rya miliyoni 10 z’ama-ruble akemera kujya kurwana ararisonerwa.

Gusa izi nyungu ni nka ya nkota y’amugi abiri kuko nubwo hari imiryango iri kubona amafaranga menshi, ubukungu bw’igihugu muri rusange buri kuhatikirira, ahanini bitewe n’uko urwego rw’igisirikare ruri kunyunyuza umusanzu w’izindi nzego.

Nk’urugero, kuva iyi ntambara yatangira, abaturage barenga ibihumbi 500 bavuye mu nzego zindi bakoragamo, bajya gukora mu nzego zifite aho zihuriye n’igisirikare, zirimo cyane cyane inganda zikora ibikoresho bya gisirikare.

Izi nganda nazo zirimo izahoze zikora ibikoresho bisanzwe bya gisivile nk’amabati n’ibindi, ariko ubu zikaba ziri gukora ibikoresho bifite aho bihuriye n’igisirikare birimo ibifaru, drones n’ibindi.

Nko mu mwaka ushize, umusaruro w’urwego rw’inganda mu Burusiya wazamutse 3,5%, icyakora 60% by’iryo zamuka ryashingiye ku bwiyongere bw’ibikoresho bya gisirikare. Mu yandi magambo, iri zamuka ntabwo ari ishusho y’ukuri y’izamuka ry’umusaruro w’inganda muri rusange, kuko urwego rumwe rwihariye igice kinini cyaryo.

Igisirikare cyaburijemo izindi nzego

Nubwo umusaruro w’urwego rw’inganda wazamutse, ahanini bishingiye ku ntambara yo muri Ukraine, umusaruro w’izindi nzego z’ingenzi mu bukungu waramanutse, cyane cyane bitewe n’igabanuka rishingiye ku bakozi n’ibindi. Nk’urugero, umusaruro w’urwego rw’ubwubatsi wagabanutse ku kigero cya 5,1%.

Bimwe mu byateye iki kibazo ni uko abakozi benshi bakoraga muri uru rwego, cyane cyane abahembwa make twagereranya na ba nyakabyizi, bagiye gukora mu gisirikare kugira ngo babone amafaranga menshi kandi abahindurira ubuzima vuba, banabutakaza imiryango yabo ikazabaho neza.

Muri rusange, ibi byateje ikibazo gikomeye mu Barusiya kuko abakozi babaye bake. Raporo ya Banki Nkuru y’icyo gihugu, ivuga ko nibura hejuru ya 70% y’ibigo by’ubucuruzi bigorwa no kubona abakozi basimbura abagiye gukora mu bijyanye n’igisirikare.

Magingo aya, ikigero cy’ubushomeri mu Burusiya kiri kuri 2,4%, aho kiri hasi ugereranyije n’impuzandengo y’ubushomeri mu bihugu byateye imbere, ikunze kuba iri hagati ya 4% na 6%. Muri rusange, ubaze abahunze n’abagiye gukora mu nzego zifitanye isano n’igisirikare, u Burusiya bufite icyuho cy’abakozi bagera kuri miliyoni 1.7 ndetse mu gihe byakomeza gutya, iki cyuho cyagera kuri miliyoni 2.4 mu 2030.

Kubera ubuke bw’abakozi, ibigo by’ubucuruzi birushaho kubahanganira binyuze mu kongera umushahara. Muri rusange, umushahara w’abakozi wiyongereyeho 6% kuva iyi ntambara yatangira. Icyakora byinshi mu bigo ntibifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza guhemba abakozi neza bitewe no gutakaza amasoko byahoranye mu mahanga ndetse n’ikiguzi cyo gukora ubucuruzi kiri kurushaho kwiyongera, ahanini bitewe no gutakaza agaciro k’ifaranga ry’igihugu.

Ibigo by’ubucuruzi mu marira

Ibigo by’ubucuruzi imbere mu Burusiya bihanganye n’ibibazo bitatu bikomeye. Icya mbere ni ukubona abakozi bahagije kandi bafite ubushobozi, ikindi kikaba kubona ibikoresho bikenewe mu gukora ibikorwa byabo, cyane cyane ibijyanye n’ikoranabuhanga, ndetse n’ikibazo cyo kubona igishoro cyo kwagura ibikorwa byabyo.

Ubucuruzi hagati y’u Burusiya n’Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi bwavuye kuri miliyari 30,4$ muri Gashyantare 2022, bugera kuri miliyari 6,2$ muri Nzeri uyu mwaka. U Burayi bwari bwihariye hejuru ya 36% by’ubucuruzi u Burusiya bwahoze bukorana n’amahanga mbere y’intambara, aho ari nabwo bwari buyoboye ibindi bice by’Isi. Ibi byumvikanisha igihombo ibigo by’ubucuruzi imbere mu Burusiya byahuye nacyo.

Ku rundi ruhande, nubwo imishahara yazamutse mu Burusiya, itakazagaciro k’ifaranga ry’icyo gihugu ryatumye ibiciro ku masoko bizamuka mu buryo budasanzwe. Nk’ubu igiciro cy’ibirayi cyazamutseho 40%, igiciro cya gaz ikoreshwa mu gushyushya nzu cyikuba inshuro 10 mu myaka 10 ishize.

Uretse igabanuka ry’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga, ububiko bwa miliyari zirenga 300$ u Burusiya bwari bubitse mu mahanga bugafatirwa nyuma y’intambara, bwarushije gushyira igitutu ku ifaranga ry’igihugu, bituma Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu isigarana amahitamo make mu kurisigasira kugira ngo ridakomeza kugwa cyane.

Mu bisubizo bike iyi Banki Nkuru y’u Burusiya yari isigaranye, harimo kongera inyungu fatizo aho yayigejeje kuri 21%, ikigero cyaherukaga mu 2003. Kuzamura inyungu fatizo biba bisobanuye ko inyungu ku nguzanyo yishyurwa n’ibigo by’ubucuruzi kuri za banki yiyongera, bigatuma byongera ibiciro ku masoko, ibi nabyo bikarushaho gutuma ifaranga ritakaza agaciro, rwa rusobe rw’ibibazo rukarushaho kwiyongera.

Mu Ukwakira, umuyobozi w’Ikigo cya Rostec gikora ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga, akaba n’inshuti magara ya Perezida Putin, Sergei Chemezov, yavuze ko ubu gushyira amafaranga muri banki aho kuyashora mu bikorwa bibyara inyungu, ari byo bitanga umusaruro ku bigo by’ubucuruzi, ati "Kuri ubu ibitanga inyungu ni uguhagarika ibikorwa byo kwagura ubucuruzi cyangwa bikagabanywa, amafaranga akabikwa muri banki."

Banki Nkuru y’u Burusiya ivuga ko izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko rihagaze kuri 9%, nyamara abasesenguzi bemeza ko rishobora kuba rigeze hafi kuri 30%, bishingiye ku buryo inyungu ku nguzanyo zo kubaka iri kuri 28%, mu gihe inyungu fatizo iri kuri 21% kandi ishobora kuzamurwa mu minsi iri imbere nk’uko Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y’u Burusiya, Elvira Nabiullina, aherutse kubitangaza.

Ibi biri kurushaho gushyira mu byago ibigo by’ubucuruzi biri kunanirwa kwishyura inguzanyo zabyo. Muri uyu mwaka, ibigo by’ubucuruzi byahombye byazamutseho 20% ugereranyije, ndetse hejuru ya 30% y’ibigo by’ubucuruzi byavuze ko bizagorwa no kwishyura inguzanyo bifite kuko bigomba gukoresha nibura hejuru ya 70% by’inyungu bibona mu kwishyura inguzanyo za banki.

Inyungu ya bimwe muri ibi bigo yiyongereye kuko byari byarafashe inguzanyo mu madolari kandi bikora ubucuruzi bwabyo mu ma-ruble, ibi bigatuma birushaho kugorwa no kwishyura bitewe n’impinduka zabaye ku isoko ry’ibunjisha, zatewe no gutakaza agaciro ku ifaranga ry’u Burusiya.

Ikindi kigaragaza ibibazo biri mu bukungu bw’u Burusiya ni isoko ry’imari n’imigabane ry’i Moscow, aho agaciro k’ubucuruzi buhakorerwa kagabanutse ku kigero cya 25%. Ibi bishingira ku kizere kiri kuyoyoka ku ishoramari rikorerwa imbere mu Burusiya, bikajyana n’uko ibigo byinshi mpuzamahanga byari byarasigaye muri icyo gihugu biri gukuramo akarenge, ibiri gutuma agaciro k’ibikorwa byabyo mu Burusiya kagabanuka.

Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na Kaminuza ya Yale bugaragaza ko kugera muri Gicurasi uyu mwaka, ibigo by’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga bigera kuri 543 byafunze imiryango mu Burusiya, ibintu birenga 1000 nabyo bigabanya ibikorwa byabyo muri icyo gihugu.

Leta y’u Burusiya yarushijeho gukaza ingamba zigamije kubuza ibi bigo kuva kuri iri soko. Zimwe muri izo ngamba zirimo gusaba ibigo by’ubucuruzi biri kuva ku isoko ry’u Burusiya kugurisha umutungo wabyo ku igabanyirizwa rya 60%, ndetse yanazamuye umusoro w’ibigo biri kuva kuri iryo soko kugera kuri 35%, uvuye kuri 15%.

Gusa benshi bemeza ko ibi bidahagije kuko isoko ry’u Burusiya ritagitanga umusaruro kuri ibyo bigo, dore ko inyungu y’ibigo mpuzamahanga bihakorera yagabanutse cyane, ikava kuri miliyari 318$ mu 2021, ikagera kuri miliyari 193$ mu 2023.

Perezida Putin mu mazi abira?

Mu Burusiya, kunenga Perezida Vladimir Putin cyangwa intambara icyo gihugu kirimo muri Ukraine ni ibintu bidasanzwe, cyane ko ikigero cy’uburyo yishimirwa n’abaturage cyari ku mpuzandengo ya 82% mu 2023 na 85% mu 2024.

Icyakora kubera ingaruka iyi ntambara iri kugira ku baturage b’u Burusiya, benshi barimo abanyamakuru n’abandi bahanga bubashywe mu Burusiya, batangiye gutinyuka kumuvuga, no gutinyuka kugaragaza bimwe mu bitagenda neza ku rugamba, bamwe bakanerura, bakavuga ko u Burusiya buri gutsindwa iyi ntambara.

Abo barimo nka Depite Andrei Kuznetsov uherutse kuvuga ko "U Burusiya bukennye cyane uyu munsi kurusha uko bwari bukennye mu minsi ishize. Abasirikare bacu bari mu byago ku rugamba, mu gihe tutatsinda, u Burusiya bwahura n’ibyago bikomeye."

Undi wanenze imyitwarire y’iyi ntambara ni Robert Nigmatulin, umwe mu bahanga b’intyoza mu Burusiya, akaba na Perezida w’Ikigo cyita ku bya Siyansi. Uyu mugabo aherutse kuvuga ko mu mibare ishingiye ku izamuka ry’ubukungu ry’ukuri, ubukungu bw’u Burusiya buri inyuma y’ubw’ibihugu nka Argentine, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan na Belarus.

Uyu mugabo yavuze ko ubukungu buri kuzamuka bushingiye ku ikenerwa ry’ibikoresho bya gisirikare budafite ingaruka nziza ku Burusiya mu gihe kirekire. Yananenze abari hafi ya Perezida Putin batamubwiza ukuri ku biri kuba.

Ati "Nibyo [ubukungu burakura], dushora imari, ariko ntacyo twunguka. Tugomba kumva ko ingamba za Perezida wacu ari mbi... ba minisitiri akorana nabo nta bushobozi bafite. Buri uko bahawe ijambo, batangira bashimira Perezida."

Undi uherutse kuvuga amagambo akomeye ni Olga Skabeeva, umwe mu banyamakuru bakomeye mu Burusiya, wavuze ko ’igikorwa cya gisirikare mu Burusiya kiri kugenda nabi’ yongeraho ko itangazamakuru ryategetswe kubeshya abaturage. Ati "Bari kuturasa bikomeye [ku rugamba] cyane ku buryo gutsinda bigoye... twahatiwe guhisha ukuri ku baturage b’u Burusiya."

Umuyobozi wa za filime uzwi mu Burusiya, Karen Shakhnazarov, akaba n’umukobwa w’umwe mu bari inshuti za Perezida Gorbachev, aherutse kuvuga ko ’ikizava muri iyi ntambara ari urupfu ku Barusiya, intambara hagati y’Abarusiya ndetse n’intambara n’intwaro kirimbuzi.’

Kuri Vladimir Soloviev nawe ukora mu byo kuyobora filime, yavuze ko igihe kigeze Perezida Putin w’imyaka 72 akajya mu kiruhuko cy’izabukuru, mu gihe umwanditsi w’ibitabo wubashywe, Mikhail Veller, yavuze ko iyi ntambara iri kuganisha ku ’rupfu rwa Putin’ nyirizina.

Aba kimwe n’abandi benshi mu Burusiya, bari kurushaho kugaragaza kutishimira ibihe igihugu cyabo kiri kunyuramo, yaba ibyo ku rugamba muri Ukraine ndetse no mu mifuka yabo imbere mu gihugu.

Birasaba ko Ingabo z’u Burusiya zongera gutanga icyizere ku rugamba, zikarushaho kwagura ubutaka zifite ndetse n’inzego zishinzwe kureberera ubukungu mu Burusiya zigahangana n’ibibazo bibwugarije birimo izamuka ry’ibiciro n’itakazagaciro k’ifaranga ry’icyo gihugu. Ibitari ibyo, u Burusiya bushobora kuzisanga bwasubiye mu bihe bijya gusa nk’ibyo Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyete zanyuzemo mu 1917 na 1990.