Yabigarutseho mu kiganiro yagiranye na IGIHE ku wa Kane w’iki Cyumweru nyuma y’aho BNR yari imaze gutangaza imyanzuro yavuye mu nama ya Komite ya Politiki y’Ifaranga n’ishinzwe ubutajegajega bw’ubukungu bw’igihugu.

Ni inama yanzuye ko urwunguko rwa Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu ruguma kuri 6,5%, ikigero n’ubundi rwari rwashyizweho mu mezi atatu ashize.

Soraya Hakuziyaremye amaze imyaka itatu ari Guverineri wungirije wa Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu

Ikiganiro kirambuye na Soraya Hakuziyaremye

IGIHE: Mwashingiye kuki mugumisha urwunguko rwa BNR kuri 6,5%?

Soraya: Komite y’ifaranga ya BNR, yafashe icyemezo cy’uko urwunguko ruguma kuri 6,5%. Muribuka ko mu gihe umuvuduko w’ibiciro wazamukaga cyane, twari twaragiye tuzamura urwo rwunguko kugira ngo dushobore guhangana n’umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro [ku masoko] wari urengeje 5% tuba twifuza.

Twasuzumye uko umuvuduko w’ibiciro uhagaze dusanga ko tukiri hasi ya 5%. Nk’uko mwabibonye mu kwezi gushize, twari kuri 3,8%, tunareba mu mibare, uko tubona uyu mwaka uzarangira, tubona ko umuvuduko w’ibiciro uzaba uhagaze kuri 4,6% ndetse twanareba mu mibare, aho iryo zamuka ry’ibiciro rizaba rigeze, tugasanga ni 5,6% mu 2025.

Tugasanga rero yaba uyu mwaka n’utaha, mu mibare tubona uko ibiciro bihagaze yaba ibyo tuvana hanze n’ibyo dukura hano iwacu, nta mpamvu yatuma twongera cyangwa twongera kugabanya urwo rwunguko ahubwo turumva iyo mibare ihagaze mu kigereranyo tuba dushaka ko umuvuduko w’ibiciro uba uhagaze hagati ya 2%-8% mu mezi 12 ari imbere.

Ibyo ntibivuze ko ibintu bitahinduka, murabizi ko ibintu by’ibiciro bigirwaho ingaruka n’ibintu bitandukanye. Hari ibyo twe nk’igihugu dushobora gukoraho nk’iyo tureba mu musaruro w’ubuhinzi, ariko nanone iyo turebye mu byo tuvana hanze, nk’ubu uko twabonye ikibazo cy’intambara yo muri Ukraine cyari cyagize ingaruka ku biciro cyane ku bikomoka kuri peteroli ndetse n’ifumbire n’ibiribwa.

Izo ntambara tubona haba mu Burasirazuba bwo hagati, haba intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine ubona ko ishobora kuba yakara kurushaho, ni ibintu tuvuga tuti mu mibare dufite hatagize ikindi gihinduka, umuvuduko w’ibiciro wakomeza kuba hasi ya 8%, hagati ya 4,6% na 5,8%.

Ni cyo cyatumye urwunguko turugumisha aho turi.

Hashize iminsi havugwa ikibazo cy’ibura ry’amadolari ku bagana inzu z’ivunjisha. Byatewe n’iki?

Aya ni amezi abajya kurangura ibintu mu mahanga baba bakeneye amadolari cyane bitegura ibyo bazacuruza mu mpera z’umwaka. N’ubundi mu myaka yose tubona ko ukwezi kwa 9, ukwa 10 n’ukwa 11 ari ho abashaka amadolari aba ari benshi kurusha andi mezi.

Ikindi ni uko kugira ngo amadolari aboneke ari menshi mu gihugu, ni uko dukumira cya cyuho kiri hagati y’ibyo twohereza mu mahanga n’ibyo dukurayo.

Ibyo twohereza mu mahanga nubwo byiyongereye ariko mu mezi icyenda ashize, icyuho hagati y’ibyo twohereza mu mahanga n’ibyo tuvanayo, cyiyongereye ku 8,6%. Wareba ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ku gaciro, ukabona ko ryagabanyutse muri ayo mezi icyenda ya mbere y’umwaka, ryari ryagabanyutse 6,5%.

Urebye amadolari kugira ngo tuyabone mu gihugu, ahantu aturuka ni mu byo twohereza mu mahanga, hakaba n’amafaranga abanyarwanda baba mu mahanga bohereza mu Rwanda n’ishoramari.

Usanga amafaranga y’abanyarwanda baba hanze agenda yiyongera ku buryo uyu mwaka tubona ko azagera kuri miliyoni 500$ ariko ntibihagije kugira ngo agabanye icyuho.

Ibyo dutumiza mu mahanga biracyari byinshi, kandi bimwe birumvikana kuko tucyubaka ubushobozi bw’inganda cyane …kuvuga ko ibiva mu mahanga ari byinshi cyane ntabwo ari bibi keretse ari ibintu tudashobora kwihazamo nk’igihugu.

Aho rero ni ho ubona ko muri aya mezi abashakaga amadolari bari benshi.

Ni iki BNR ikora iyo byagenze bityo?

Tureba ku isoko niba ntabashaka gusahurira mu nduru bagatangira guhisha amadolari bavuga ngo ntahari kugira ngo bongeze igiciro mu buryo butari bwo.

Twafashe ingamba dukora ubugenzuzi mu biro by’ivunjisha aho twabonye ko bimwe byahishaga amadolari kandi ahari, bakanga kuyaha abaguzi cyangwa bakayacuruza ku mafaranga arenze ayo baba banditse.

Hari abo mwafatiye ibihano kubera iyo mikorere idahwitse?

Hari Forex Bureau eshatu twafatiye ibihano, twazifunze amezi atatu kubera ibyo bikorwa, izindi zirindwi zaciwe amande kuko twasanze hari ibikorwa binyuranyije n’amategeko n’amabwiriza zarenzeho.

Hari n’amabanki abiri twahannye kubera iyo mikorere yo kutubahiriza amategeko mu kugurisha amadolari cyangwa amafaranga yo hanze.

Ikindi iyo tubona ko abantu bashaka amadolari babaye benshi ku isoko cyangwa n’ingano ikenewe yagiye hejuru, nka Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda twongera amadolari dushyira ku isoko kugira ngo amabanki na Forex Bureau bikomeze guhangana n’iryo zamuka rikabije ry’abashaka amadolari.

Ubundi amadolari mushyira ku isoko aba ari angahe?

Mu gihe gisanzwe tuba dutanga amadolari miliyoni eshanu [ku cyumweru] ariko ubu twarongeje tugera kuri miliyoni 10 kugira ngo tugabanye iryo zamuka rikabije ry’amadolari abantu bifuza…ni isoko dukurikirana buri munsi.

Bijya bibaho ko umuntu ashobora gutegereza igihe runaka kugira ngo abone amadolari akeneye?

Hari igihe abashaka ingano nini batayabonera icyarimwe bakaba bategereza. Twabonaga ko ugereranyije hari abashobora gutegereza icyumweru cyangwa ibyumweru bibiri bitewe n’amadolari bashaka…turabizeza ko nta kibazo cy’amadolari.

Visi Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y'Igihugu, Soraya Hakuziyaremye, yavuze ko umuvuduko w'izamuka ry'ibiciro ku masoko ukomeje kuba munsi y'imbago BNR iba yariyemeje ko utagomba kurenga

Haba hari ingaruka ibyorezo bya Marburg na Mpox bishobora kugira ku bukungu bw’igihugu?

Mpox yo ndumva yarahise ikumirwa bidatinze. Marburg ni yo yari yaduteje impungenge ariko leta yashyizemo imbaraga, murabona ko icyo cyorezo cyakumiriwe.

Ntabwo rero twavuga ko bizagira ingaruka ku gihugu kuko urebye ni nk’ukwezi kumwe cyangwa kumwe n’igice.

Ariko imirimo yarakomeje nk’uko bisanzwe ariko kandi ni nko muri ibyo byumweru bitandatu gusa habaye nk’ahabayemo ikibazo ariko nta bantu bigeze babuzwa gukora, nta wababujije kujya mu mirima, nta nama zahagaritswe.

Tubona ko nubwo habaye ingaruka ariko ntabwo ari ikintu cyahungabanya cyane ubukungu, kandi muzi ko igice cya mbere cy’umwaka twari twagize ubukungu bwiyongereye cyane ku kigero cya 9,4%, ubu rero dutegereje kubona imibare y’igihembwe cya gatatu n’iki turimo.

Twizera ko imibare twari dufite y’uko ubukungu buziyongera ndetse tunakoranye n’Ikigega cy’Isi Gishinzwe Imari (IMF), babonaga ko ubukungu mu mibare batangaje mu kwezi kwa 10, buziyongeraho 8% kandi baje tunaganira, twongera gusubiramo iyo mibare Marburg ikirimo, na byo twari twabishyizemo kugira ngo turebe ko ubukungu butazasubira inyuma.

Ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rikomeje gutakaza agaciro mu buryo budasanzwe. Ibi bintu biri guterwa n’iki?

Umwaka ushize ni byo koko ifaranga ryari ryataye agaciro ku kigero cya 18%. Ukaba iyo urebye mu myaka 15 ishize cyari ikigero cyo hejuru. Ibyo bintu kubisobanura, hari ukuvuga icyo cyuho kiri hagati y’ibyo twohereza mu mahanga n’ibyo tuvanayo.

Ariko hari n’uko idorari rya Amerika kubera urwunguko rwari rwagiye hejuru na Banki Nkuru ya Amerika na bo barwanya umuvuduko w’ibiciro kuva mu 2022, bituma idolari rijya hejuru cyangwa rihenda, ubwo ifaranga ry’u Rwanda rikaba risubiye inyuma.

Ibyo bintu bibiri kuba byarabereye rimwe ni byo byateye ikibazo.

Icya kabiri cyo tubona ni uko uyu mwaka guta agaciro, ni gahoro ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize.

Twareba no mu mibare iri imbere n’ingamba zashyizweho kugira ngo dukomeze kongera ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, dukomeze kuzana ishoramari, ni ibintu bituma hinjira amadolari menshi, amadolari aruse ayinjiraga, nubwo twavuga ngo ni ingamba uhita ubona umusaruro ako kanya.

Ni ingamba z’igihe kiringaniye cyangwa ikirekire, tubona ko muri iyi myaka iri imbere ya kwa gutakaza agaciro, kuko turi mu isoko rifunguye, ntabwo rizaguma ku kigero kimwe.

Ariko tukabona ko uko ryagendaga rita agaciro mu mpuzandengo ubundi yabaga ari 5% ku mwaka, ukabona nta kibazo kinini biteye. Tuzagaruka kuri iyo mibare twe twumva idateye ikibazo cyane urebye n’uko isoko ryacu rihagaze ariko urebye no ku bukungu bwacu.

Kongera ibyoherezwa mu mahanga bitwara igihe ariko ingamba zirahari zihamye yaba NST2, yaba politike nshya y’inganda yashyizweho na Minisiteri y’Ubucuruzi n’Inganda, yemezwa na guverinoma mu meza ashize. Ni gahunda y’imyaka 10 kandi aho itugeza ni heza.

Abantu hari igihe baba bashaka ko haba igisubizo cyihuse ariko mu by’ukungu nta gisubizo gihutiyeho gihari. Ugomba kugenda wubaka kandi tubona ko urwego rw’inganda uko rugenda rukura ku kigero gishimishije, ni uko n’ibyo dukura hanze bishobora gukorerwa mu Rwanda bigenda bigabanuka.

Uko abashoramari biyongera kandi bagakora imishinga mizima kandi minini, ni ko tubona ko agaciro k’ifaranga ryacu kazongera kagahagarara neza. Ubwo rero hari icyizere kandi dukorana n’izindi nzego kugira ngo ibyemejwe bishyirwe mu bikorwa.

Inguzanyo igihugu gifite hari ubushobozi bwo kuzishyura?

Kuri ubu aho inguzanyo z’igihugu zigeze ni kuri 73% by’umusaruro mbumbe. Ntabwo biraba ikigero cyaba gihangayikishije, ahubwo turebye uko izo nguzanyo zikoreshwa n’ibikorwa zikora, ni ibikorwa n’ubundi bizatuzanira amafaranga atuma dushobora kuzishyura.

Ikindi abantu bajya bibagirwa ni uko tuvuga ngo inguzanyo zarazamutse kandi koko no mu gihe cya COVID kubera ibyo twarwanaga na byo zagombaga kuzamuka, ibyo ni ku Isi hose.

80% by’izo nguzanyo ni inguzanyo twita ‘Concessional’. Ni inguzanyo ziba zifite inyungu iri hasi cyane, hasi ya 2% kandi hari izitagira n’inyungu, kandi zinatwemerera ko twatangira kwishyura hashize imyaka myinshi nk’itanu, icumi.

Ibyo rero bituma tuvuga ko iyo ufashe 80% by’izo nguzanyo zose, ntabwo ari inguzanyo tugomba guhita twishyura ubu, kandi nidutangira no kwishyura, inyungu iri hasi.

Ikindi gipimo tureberaho ni ukuvuga ngo ‘Ese ubundi nk’amafaranga twinjiza avuye nko mu misoro, ugereranyije n’inyungu tuba twishyura no kwishyura iyo myenda, ese icyo gipimo kiri hejuru?’

Ubu kigeze kuri 11%, ufashe amafaranga leta yinjiza, ukareba n’amafaranga twishyura kandi bavuga ko ikigero utagomba kurenza iyo urebye ku kigero mpuzamahanga, ni 23% na 25%.

Murumva rero ko igihugu gifite ubushobozi bwo kwishyura, ntikiranageza no ku kigero cyaba gihangayikishije.

Aho rero tubona ko icy’ingenzi ni uko igihugu cyizewe, kibona inguzanyo, inguzanyo zidahenze ni zo nyinshi, kandi izo nguzanyo zicunzwe neza n’ibikorwa birimo bikaba ari ibikorwa bizatuma ubukungu bwiyongera n’igihugu kikinjiza imisoro myinshi kurushaho, bituma gishobora gukomeza kwishyura neza iyo myenda.

Ni ryari bavuga ko igihugu kiremerewe n’inguzanyo?

Akenshi bavuga ko inguzanyo zirengeje 80% cyangwa 85%, ubwo icyo gihugu kiba gisatira icyo bita ‘distress’, ni ukuvuga ko kiba gisatira ko hashobora kuba ibihombo byatuma kitishyura neza.

Igihugu cyacu ntikirahagera, ariko icyo gipimo cya 80% kiba kinareba ko ari inguzanyo wavuga ngo zisanzwe. Rero izo dufite baba baguhaye umwanya wo gutangira kwishyura, ni byo bitanaduha impungenge kuko ni inguzanyo yego zigomba kwishyurwa ariko zishyurwa mu gihe kirekire.

Kandi icyo gihe kirekire ni ukuvuga ko ibikora izo nguzanyo zashowemo zizaba zatangiye gutanga umusaruro, aho rero rwose mu mibare tubona ko bitarahangayikisha.

Ni ibiki mubona bishobora gukoma mu nkokora ubukungu bw’u Rwwanda ntibuzamuke ku gipimo cyifuzwa?

Mu ntego twihaye y’imyaka itanu, tubona ko urebye mu myaka ishize, n’iyo twafata mu myaka 30 ishize, ntabwo twavuga ko igihugu nta mbogamizi zabayeho ariko intego twari twihaye turagenda tuzigeraho.

Kuba ubukungu bwarakomezaga kwiyongera ku kigero kiri hagati ya 7%-8% ku mwaka, byerekana ko dufite uburyo bwo guhangana n’ibibazo ku buryo dukora ibidasanzwe bikadufasha ko ubukungu bwacu bukomeza gutera imbere.

Hari bimwe tugenda twerekana. Izi ntambara z’ibihugu, uko ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu bushobora gukorwa mu nkokora, hari imihindagurikire y’ibihe ariko mubona ko igihugu cyafashe ingamba ku buryo dukumira ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ibihe tunashaka n’amafaranga afasha igihugu guhangana nazo, mbona ko ingamba dufite ni ingamba zihamye.

Urebye n’iyo habaye imbogamizi, nka Covid-19 nta muntu wari warayiteganyije ariko twayiciyemo kandi murabona ko nyuma ubukungu bwasubiye ku muvuduko bwari bufite. Icyizere kirahari rero ko n’iyi ntego ya NST2 tuzayigeraho.

Icyo umuntu yavuga ni uruhare rw’umunyarwanda. Buri wese ku rwego ariho, mu rwego akora, ni ugukomeza gukora cyane no kugira amakuru, ukamenya uti ese ibikorwa ukora bihura bite n’icyerekezo cy’igihugu. Aho ni ho tugomba gushyira imbaraga cyane.