Ikigo cy’Igihugu Gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda cyashyize ahagaragara uko umubare w’Abaturarwanda uzaba ungana kugeza mu mwaka w’2022, aho muri iyi mibare hagaragaramo abazapfa ndetse n’abazavuka muri icyo gihe.

Nk’uko imibare yishyizwe ahagaragara n’icyi kigo ibibaragaza, imibare y’Abanyarwanda babaruwe n’icyi kigo ihera mu mwaka wa 1978 kugeza mu mwaka w’ 2022.

Mu gihe abenshi mu batuye hirya no hino haba mu Rwanda n’ahandi hatandukanye ku Isi badahuriza ku mibare y’Abanyarwanda, ku buryo bitera bamwe kubura iyo bafata n’iyo bareka muri iki gihe, Ikigo cy’Igihugu Gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda mu rwego rwo gufasha buri wese kumenya imwe mu mibare yemewe ku rwego rw’igihugu hashingiwe ku mabarura yagiye akorwa cyabitangaje ku buryo burambuye.

Mu kiganiro n’Ikinyamakuru IGIHE Umuyobozi Mukuru w’Ikigo cy’Igihugu Gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda Murangwa Yusuf, yatangaje ko mu gihe bakoraga iri barurishamibare rw’igihe kirekire ryo kugaragaza umjubare wemewe w’Abanyarwanda bakoresheje uburyo bw’ubuhanga buzwi kw’izina rya “Population Projection”, ugenekereke mu Kinyarwanda wabyita ‘Intumbero y’abaturage’.

Ibarurisha mibare ni iki?

Nk’uko bitangazwa na Murangwa Yusuf Umuyobozi w’iki kigo ngo ibarurishamibare ni ubuhanga bukoreshwa mu gutara amakuru, kuyatunganya, kuyasesengura, kuyatangaza no kuyabika neza. Aya makuru ashingiye ku mibare afasha mu gutegura igenamigambi haba ku rwego rw’igihugu cyangwa ku zindi nzego mu gukurikirana ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’igenamigambi, mu gufata ibyemezo, mu bushakashatsi, ndetse no mu bindi bitandukanye.

Ikigo cy’Igihugu Gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda, ni rwo rwego rukuru mu gihugu mu byerekeye ibarurishamibare, kikaba ari nacyo cyonyine gifite inshingano zo kwemeza no gutangaza ku mugaragaro imibare n’ibipimo byemewe mu Rwanda ku babikoresha bose kikagira kandi n’inshingano zo guhuza ibikorwa byose birebana n’ibarurishamibare mu gihugu aribyo bita “NSS Coordination”, no guha ubushobozi inzego zose zikora ibikorwa by’ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda bizwi ku izina rya ”NSS capacity development/building”.

Dore uko umubare w’Abanyarwanda ungana kuri ubu

Ibarura rusange ry’abaturage n’imiturire riheruka ryo kuwa 16 kugeza kuwa 30 Kanama mu mwaka wa 2002, dore ko ari naryo barura riheruka gukorwa mu Rwanda, ryagaragaje ko Abanyarwanda bari 8,128,553 (abagore bari 4,249,105 aribo bangana n’ijanisha rya 52.27%).

Bitewe n’uko ibarura rusange ry’abaturage n’imiturire rikorwa inshuro imwe mu myaka icumi, hakoreshwa ubundi buhanga bwa “Population Projection” kugira ngo hamenyekane ikigereranyo cy’abaturage mu myaka ikurikira umwaka w’ibarura.

Ubwo buryo bwagaragaje ko mu mwaka w’2010, Abanyarwanda bari 10,412,820 (abagore bari 5,383,371 ku ijanisha rya 51.7%), naho mu mwaka ushize wa 2011 Abanyarwanda bari 10,718,379 (Abagore bari 5,534,874 kw’ijanisha ni 51.6%).

Mu mwaka wa 2011, ijanisha ryagaragazaga ko abagabo bari 48.3%, naho abagore nabo bakaba bari 51.7%, iki kigo kikaba kivuga ko buri mwaka ikigereranyo cy’abaturage kizamuka ku rugero rwa kabiri n’ibice icyenda (2.9).

Amabarura rusange atatu aheruka gukorwa mu Rwanda, yagaragaje ko mu mwaka w’1978 Abanyarwanda bari 4,819,317. Mu mwaka w’1991, Abanyarwanda bakaba bari bamaze kugera kuri miliyoni 7,149,215. Naho ibarura riheruka gukorwa mu Rwanda rikaba ari iryo muri 2002, ryagaragaje ko Abanyarwanda bari miliyoni 8,128,553.

Muri Kanama muri uyu mwaka wa 2012, nibwo hazongera gukorwa ibarura rusange ry’Abanyarwanda, kuko hazaba hashize imyaka icumi ibarura rusange ry’abaturage n’imiturire riheruka ryo kuwa 16 kugeza kuwa 30 Kanama mu mwaka wa 2002 ribaye.

Abanyarwanda baba mu mahanga nti bari muri iyi mibare

Mw’ibarura rusange ry’abaturage n’imiturire, Abanyarwanda batuye mu mahanga ku mpamvu zabo bwite ntabwo babarurwa. Habarurwa abakora muri za ambasade z’u Rwanda n’imiryango yabo, n’abari mu butumwa bw’akazi hanze y’igihugu, abagiye hanze by’igihe gito ariko batuye mu Rwanda.

Kugeza magingo aya, Abanyarwanda baba hanze mu mahanga batari muri bariya bavuzwe haruguru iki kigo nta mubare wabo gifite, dore ko mu mwaka w’2011 hageragejwe gushyirwaho uburyo bwo kubabarura hakoreshejwe ikoranabuhanga ry’ibibazo kuri internetbita “Web based questionnaire”, ariko ngo iryo barura rikaba ritaritabiriwe kuko hasubije abagera kuri 540 gusa.

Hari abavuga imibare bishakiye y’ingano y’Abanyarwanda

Miliyoni icumi, cumi n’imwe na cumi n’ebyiri nizo zikunzwe kuvugwa n’abantu benshi aho usanga bamwe baba bivugira imibare bashatse. Gusa mu mwaka wa 2009, Ikigo cy’Igihugu Gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda cyatangaje raporo igaragaza ikigereranyo cy’umubare w’Abanyarwanda cya buri mwaka kuva mu mwaka w’ 2007 kugeza mu w’ 2022 hakoreshejwe uburyo bwa gishanga ari bwo “Population Projection”.

Iyo raporo igaragaza ko ikigereranyo cy’abanyarwanda muri 2011 bari 10,718,379 naho muri 2012 bakaba bari 11,033,141.

Uyu muyobozi w’iki kigo Murangwa Yusuf, avuga ko abavuga imibare itandukanye n’iyi, bishoboka ko rimwe na rimwe baba birengagije imibare irenga kuri za miliyoni kuko imibare nk’iyo byoroshye kuyivuga.

Abavuka n’abapfa nabo barabarurwa

Kuri buri biro by’umurenge hari abakozi bashinzwe irangamimerere. Abo bakozi nibo bashinzwe kwandika mu bitabo byabugenewe abana bavuka no kwandukura abantu bapfuye. Gusa kugeza ubu Abanyarwanda ntabwo bitabira serivisi z’irangamimerere zitangwa ku mirenge, bityo bigatuma imibare y’abapfa n’abavuka hakoreshejwe irangamimerere itamenyekana. Kugeza ubu iyo mibare nayo ikaba iboneka hakoreshejwe ibarura rusange ry’abaturage n’imiturire, cyangwa “Populatin Project”.

Uko abana bavuka ku mwaka n’abapfa ku mwaka bangana, hashingiwe kuri iyi raporo, ivuga ko abana bavutse mu mwaka wa 2011 ari 450,981, naho abantu bapfuye muri uwo mwaka ni 145,421.

Intara y’Iburasirazuba niyo ituwe cyane

Hakurikijwe ikigereranyo cy’imibare yo mu bushakashatsi ku mibereho y’abaturage bwo mu mwaka wa 2010 na 2011, Intara y’Uburasirazuba niyo iza ku isonga n’abaturage benshi bangana na 2,608,544, hagakurikiraho Intara y’Uburengerazuba igizwe n’abaturage bangana na 2,585,822, hagakurikiraho Intara y’Amajyepfo igizwe n’abaturage bangana na 2,526,5 29, hagakurikiraho Intara y’Amajyaruguru igizwe n’abaturage 1,981,039, hagaheruka Umujyi wa Kigali ugizwe n’abaturage bagera kuri 1,059,750.
Iyi mibare ni ikigereranyo cyakozwe, ariko imibare nyakuri izagaragazwa n’ibarura rusange ry’abaturage n’imiturire rizakorwa muri uyu mwaka wa 2012.

Dore uko imibare iteye kuva muri 2007 kugera muri 2022

Mu mwaka wa 2007 igiteranyo cy’umubare w’abaturage cyari 9,556,669, havuka 404,792, hapfa 141 015.

Mu mwaka wa 2011 igiteranyo cy’umubare w’abaturage cyari 10,718,379, havuka 450, 980, hapfa 145,421.

Mu mwaka wa 2012 igiteranyo cy’umubare w’abaturage ni 11,033,141, hazavuka 460,859, hapfe 146 096.

Mu mwaka wa 2017 igiteranyo cy’umubare w’abaturage cyizaba ari 12,713,052, havuke 499 001, hapfe 151 130.

Mu mwaka wa 2022 igiteranyo cy’umubare w’abaturage cyizaba ari 14 591 018, havuke 525 181, hapfe 155 955.

Iyi cyi giteranyo cy’iyi mibare ariko gishobora guhinduka bitewe n’uko hari igihe hashobora kubaho ibiza bikica abaturage benshi cyangwa se intambara.