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Icyizere cy’agahenge mu izamuka ry’ibiciro n’izahuka ry’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda

Yanditswe na Rabbi Malo Umucunguzi
Kuya 28 Nzeri 2022 saa 08:39
Yasuwe :

Banki y’Isi yagaragaje ko nyuma y’izahuka ry’ubukungu ku muvuduko wo hejuru mu 2021, umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu mu mwaka wa 2022 uzagira izamuka riringaniye, kubera ingaruka z’intambara yo muri Ukraine n’impungenge ku cyorezo cya COVID-19 mu bihugu bifite ubukungu buteye imbere.

Imibare ya Banki y’Isi muri raporo ya 19 ku Rwanda, igaragaza ko mu 2022 ubukungu buzazamuka kuri 6%, mu gihe mu 2021 bwazamutse kuri 11% buvuye ku gusubira inyuma kwa 3.4% mu 2020.

Mu bibazo bibangamiye ubukungu muri iki gihe harimo izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko n’ihungabana ry’ubuhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa by’ingenzi birimo ibijyanye n’ingufu, ubwikorezo n’ibiribwa.

Mu Rwanda, izamuka ry’ibiciro ryageze kuri 13.7 muri Kamena 2022, igipimo kitari cyarabayeho mu myaka itanu ishize.

Raporo ikomeza iti "Izamuka ry’ubukungu mu 2022-2024 rizagenda ku muvuduko uringaniye, uzagabanyanywa n’intambara yo muri Ukraine. Umusaruro mbumbe uzazamuka kuri 6.0 ku ijana mu 2022 na 6.9 ku ijana mu 2023–2024."

"Iteganyabikorwa ryerekana ko igihugu kizagusha imvura isanzwe, bikazunganira ibikorwa by’ubuhinzi maze bikoroshya ubukana bw’ingaruka z’intambara yo muri Ukraine yazamuye ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa by’ingenzi."

Mu guhangana n’iri zamuka, Guverinoma yakomeje gushyiraho nkunganire ku biciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’inyongeramusaruro.

Nibura hagati ya Gashyantare na Werurwe 2022, ibiciro by’ibijyanye n’ingufu ku isi byazamutseho 24.1 ku ijana, ari naryo zamuka rinini ryabayeho mu kwezi kumwe guhera mu 2000.

Icyo gihe nka peteroli yazamutseho 20.2 ku ijana, amakara biba 49.9 ku ijana, mu gihe gaz yazamutsego 37.2 ku ijana.

Naho ibiciro by’inyongeramusaruro byo byazamutse kuri 18.1 ku ijana hagati ya Gashyantare na Werurwe 2022, bisanga izamuka rya 171.6 ku ijana mu 2021.

Raporo ikomeza iti "Intambara yo muri Ukraine yaremereje ikibazo, ihungabanya urwego rw’ibikorerwa mu nganda n’ubucuruzi bw’ibyoherezwaga mu mahanga cyane n’u Burusiya na Ukraine."

Ni ingaruka ariko zaje kare. Banki y’isi ivuga ko nubwo inzego zitandukanye zari zikomeje kuzahuka, hari hakiri ikibazo mu bijyanye no kubona imirimo.

Raporo yayo igaragaza ko ubushomeri bwazamutse bukagera kuri 23.8 ku ijana mu Ugushyingo 2021, bugabanyuka kuri 16.5 ku ijana mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2022.

Banki y’isi ariko ivuga ko iki gipimo kikiri hejuru y’uko ibintu byari byifashe mbere ya COVID-19, kuko mu mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2019 ubushomeri bwari 16.0%.

Umuyobozi wa Banki y’Isi mu Rwanda, Rolande Pryce, avuga ko iri zamuka ry’ibiciro ribayeho mu gihe urwego rwo kubona imirimo rutarasubira uko rwari rumeze mbere ya COVID, ribangamiye izahuka ry’ubukungu.

Ati "Rishobora gusubiza inyuma intambwe zabiriwe icyuya mu bijyanye no kugabanya ubukene no kubaka ubushobozi bw’abaturage. Ubushake bwa Guverinoma mu kurengera ab’amikoro make no kubakira kuri gahunda z’igihugu zo kwita ku batishoboye, ni ingenzi cyane."

Ubucuruzi bugenda buzahuka

Banki y’Isi ivuga ko mu bihe biri imbere, inzego zitandukanye zizakomeza kungukira mu nkunga ya Guverinoma, cyane urwego rw’ibikorerwa mu nganda n’ubwubatsi.

Ibyo ngo bizunganirwa n’izahuka ry’urwego rw’ubukerarugendo, muri iki gihe ruhagaze neza nyuma yo kwakira CHOGM, n’inama nyinshi n’ibikorwa by’imyidagaduro biteganywa muri iuyu mwaka.

Icyakora, raporo inavuga ko "Igenda buhoro ry’izamuka ry’ubukungu bw’isi rizagira ingaruka ku Rwanda, by’umwihariko ku kinyuranyo cy’amafaranga akoreshwa mu gutumiza ibintu hanze n’ava mu byoherezwa mu buryo bw’igihe kigufi, kubera izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ikiguzi kiri hejuru cyo gutumiza ibintu mu mahanga."

Mu mwaka ushize ariko umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga waruse uw’ibitumizwa, bigabanya ikinyuranyo hagati y’ubwo bucuruzi kigera kuri 15.0 ku ijana mu 2021, aho hagabanyutseho 1.2 ku ijana ugereranyije no mu 2020.

Uko ibiciro byazamukaga kandi, u Rwanda rwabonye inyungu mu byoherejwe mu mahanga birimo ikawa, icyayi, gasegereti, wolfram na coltan, aho inyungu yabyo yazamutseho 42.8 ku ijana mu 2021.

Nubwo bimeze gutyo, hakomeje kubaho impungenge ko COVID-19 ishobora guhindukirana abantu, ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ibihe n’ibindi.

Mu guhangana n’ibyo bibazo, hagaragaramo ko Guverinoma irimo kuvugurura irimo guteganya amavugurura mu ikoreshwa ry’ingengo y’imari kugira ngo haboneke ishoramari rikenewe, harimo no guhagarika amafaranga ashorwa mu bikorwa byo guhangana na COVID-19.

Harimo kandi guhagarika ishoramari rya leta ritunguka, no kwimakaza ikoranabuhanga muri serivisi nyinshi za leta.

Raporo ikomeza iti "Ku bijyanye n’amafaranga yinjizwa na Leta, ivugurura mu bijyanye n’imisoro mu buryo bw’igihe giciriritse, rizatuma uruhare rwayo mu musaruro mbumbe w’igihugu ruzamuka rugere kuri 15.9 ku ijana by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu (GDP) mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2023/24, ruvuye kuri 15.4 ku ijana bya GDP mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2021/22."

Ikoranabuhanga no guhanga ibishya bihanzwe amaso

Imibare yo muri Kamena 2022 igaragaza ko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byazamutseho 49.4%, mu gihe mafaranga yagiye mu byatumijwe yazamutseho 27.9%.

Kugira ngo ubu bucuruzi bukomeze gutera imbere, Banki y’Isi ivuga ko ibigo byo mu Rwanda bikeneye kurushaho kubyaza umusaruro ikoranabuhanga no guhanga ibishya, bityo bikabasha kwitabira ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga.

Raporo ivuga ko ibigo byo mu Rwanda bikora mu kohereza ibintu mu mahanga byavuye kuri 11 ku ijana mu 2006 bigera kuri 21 ku ijana mu 2019, ijanisha riri hejuru ugereranyije n’ibindi bihugu byo muri Afuroka yo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara.

Kugira ngo ubu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga bukunde, Banki y’Isi ivuga ko kugira icyemezo mpuzamahanga cy’ubuziranenge (ISO), gukora ubucuruzi mu ikoranabuhanga no kubasha kubona inguzanyo mu buryo bworoshye, ari bimwe mu byongera amahirwe muri iyi gahunda.

Nibura ngo ibigo bifite icyemezo cya ISO biba bifite amahirwe yisumbuyeho kuri 36 ku kohereza ibintu mu mahanga, ariko mu 2019, nibura 3% gusa mu bigo byo mu Rwanda nibyo byabonye icyemezo cya ISO.

Banki y’isi ivuga ko gufasha ibigo mu kumenya no gusaba icyemezo cya ISO byafasha mu koroshya kohereza ibintu mu mahanga.

Imibare kandi yerekana ko ibigo bikorera ibintu mu nganda binakoresha ubucuruzi bwo mu ikoranabuhanga biba bifite amahirwe ya 27 ku ijana yo kohereza ibintu mu mahanga, mu gihe ibigo bikora mu zindi serivisi biba bifite 16 ku ijana.

Nyamara ngo mu 2019, ibihugu bibiri muri bitatu byari bifite ijanisha mu bucuruzi bwo mu ikoranabuhanga riri hejuru ya 43 ku ijana u Rwanda rwabarirwaga.

Raporo ivuga ko hakenewe uburyo bufasha ibigo bito kubyaza umusaruro ikoranabuhanga, kimwe no gufashwa kubona inguzanyo cyangwa inyunganizi mu gishoro cyo gutunganya ibintu bitandukanye.

Ikomeza iti "Kubasha kugera ku mafaranga y’inyongera byongera amahirwe ya 10 ku ijana yo kubasha kohereza ibintu mu mahanga ku bakora mu nganda, na 11 ku ijana ku bakora mu zindi serivisi."

Icyakora ngo nubwo amafaranga ataba ari menshi, ibigo byo mu Rwanda bibasha kuyageraho mu buryo bworoshye kurusha mu bindi bihugu byinshi.

Hari ibikeneye kunozwa

Banki y’Isi ivuga ko u Rwanda rukwiye gusuzuma uburyo bwo gushyiraho ikigo cyihariye gikorera muri Minisiteri y’Ubucuruzi n’Inganda (MINICOM), gifite inshingano zo kunganira ibigo mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, gutanga amakuru ku masoko mpuzamahanga no kubifasha mu bijyanye n’amahugurwa n‘ubujyanama.

Ubucuruzi bukoresha ikoranabuhanga kandi ngo buracyafite icyuho mu bijyanye n’ubumenyi, kandi ngo iki kibazo kidakemuwe kizakomeza guteza ingaruka zirimo kutagira abakozi bashoboye mu bucucuzi bw’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga.

Banki y’isi itanga urugero rw’uko mu igenzura ryakozwe, byagaragaye ko u Rwanda rukeneye abacungamutungo b’umwuga 5,000 mu nzego za leta, n’abandi 2,325 mu rwego rw’imari kugira ngo bahaze isoko.

Nyamara ngo rufite 6% by’uwo mubare, nk’uko byagaragajwe na ICPAR mu 2017.

Ibyo ngo bituma u Rwanda ruza inyuma mu kugira abanyamwuga ugereranyije n’ibindi bihugu bya EAC, n’inyuma cyane y’ibihugu biza imbere muri Afurika mu kohereza mu mahanga serivisi zitandukanye, nka Mauritius na Afurika y’Epfo.

Banki y’isi ivuga ko mu gukemura icyo kibazo, Leta ishobora korohereza abahanga mu mirimo itandukanye bakomoka mu karere, ikemera impamyabumenyi zabo ngo babashe kubona uburenganzira bwo gukorera uyu murimo mu Rwanda.

Kureshya abahanga muri serivisi bo mu karere ariko ngo bikwiye kugendana no kongera umubare w’Abanyarwanda babikoramo binyuze mu mashuri.

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