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Hacura iki ibiciro ku isoko bimanutse gusa, aho kuzamuka?

Yanditswe na Rabbi Malo Umucunguzi
Kuya 7 May 2022 saa 07:44
Yasuwe :

Izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro ku isoko ni ikibazo gihangayikishije Abanyarwanda b’ingeri zose, umukire n’umukene. Byahereye ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga, ariko n’ibihingwa imbere mu Rwanda byaratumbagiye, bamwe bati ‘byose ni intambara u Burusiya burimo kurwana muri Ukraine’.

Nta wabura kuvuga ko iyo ntambara ifite ukuboko kunini muri iri zamuka, ariko iteganyamibare rigaragaza ko yaremereje ikibazo aho kuba ari yo yagitangije.

Mu gusobanura izi ngingo turifashisha ibitekerezo bya Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe uyobora Ishami rishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, BNR.

Yaganirizaga abanyamakuru ku bijyanye n’ubukungu n’ifaranga, mu kwezi gushize.

Ni byo , izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko ni ikibazo gihangayikishije, ndetse benshi ntibagisinzira bibaza uburyo ibiciro byikubye inshuro nyinshi kandi imishahara itazamutse, bakibaza uko ejo bazahahira imiryango.

Ariko se hacura iki aho kugira ngo ibiciro bizamuke, tubonye buri munsi birimo kumanuka?

Prof Kasai yagize ati “Ntabwo twababeshya ngo twiteze ko ibiciro muri uyu mwaka bizamanuka, twiteze ko biziyongera ahubwo tugakora iyo bwabaga ngo bitiyongera cyane.”

Izamuka ry’ibiciro ryaje mbere ya Ukraine vs Russia

Inzego zishinzwe ubukungu zakomeje gusobanura kwinshi ibijyanye n’ibiciro, ko isukari yabuze kubera inganda zirimo kuvugururwa, ko ibiciro by’ubwikorezi byazamutse n’ibindi, ariko hari n’ingingo irebana n’ingano y’ibikenewe ku isoko n’ibiboneka [demand & supply].

Prof Kasai yavuze ko mbere y’intambara yo muri Ukraine, iteganyamibare ryerekanaga ko ibiciro muri uyu mwaka.

Ati “Nyamara muri COVID ibiciro byari byamanutse, ubukenerwe bw’ibicuruzwa (demand) bwari hasi, abantu imodoka bari baraziparitse, zari ziparitse mu ngo.”

Muri icyo gihe nka lisansi cyangwa mazutu usanga bigira uruhare runini mu kugena ibiciro kubera ko bikenerwa mu bwikorezi, ntibyagurwaga.

Uko ubukungu bwagendaga bufunguka, ubukenerwe bw’ibicuruzwa by’ingenzi (commodities) bwarazamutse, nyamara umusaruro ntiwazamukana nabwo, habamo ukudahura kw’ibiboneka n’ibikenewe.

Prof Kasai ati “Byagaragaraga ko ubukenerwe burimo kwiyongera, abantu barimo gusubira mu buzima busanzwe, abantu batangiye gukoresha amafaranga mu buryo busanzwe, noneho hakubitiraho rero ingaruka z’intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya, nayo igaragaza ko iri bwongere kuri za mpungenge z’uko ibiciro bishobora kwiyongera.

U Burusiya bwoherezaga ku isoko mpuzamahanga ibintu byinshi birimo ibikomoka kuri peteroli, ingano, inyongeramusaruro n’ibindi, ku buryo ibura ryabyo ku isoko ugereranyije n’ibikenewe, byatumbagije ibiciro.

Ese ibiciro bishobora kutazamuka?

Nta gushidikanya ko intambara yo muri Ukraine yahungabanije ibiciro ku buryo bukabije, hejuru y’ibibazo byari biteye inkeke na mbere yayo.

Uretse ibyo ariko, impuguke mu bukungu zigaragaza ko uretse n’igihe hari ibibazo, ibiciro biba bigomba kuzamuka, ahubwo igikomeye ni igipimo iryo zamuka riba ririho.

Prof Kasai avuga ko izamua ry’ibiciro rikabije ari ryo ribi, ariko izamuka ry’ibiciro rigereranyije ni ryiza.

Yakomeje ati “Ibiciro iyo bimanutse, bigatinda bimanuka, aba ari ishyano ku bukungu. Iyo bimanutse rimwe, twese nk’abaguzi twakwishimira ko ibiciro bimanuka, ariko igikurikiraho ni iki? Iyo ibiciro bimanutse bwa mbere, bikamanuka ubwa kabiri, nta gushyira umusaruro ku isoko bibaho."

"Nta wongera gushora imari, ntabwo wagura ihene uyu munsi ku 30,000 Frw, ngo wemere gutanga 30,000 Frw uzi ko mu kwezi gutaha izaba irimo kugura 20,000 Frw, ubizi neza.”

Icyo gihe ngo niba ibiciro bihora bimanuka ukageraho ukabishyira muri gahunda ko byanze bikunze bizamanuka, utegereza kuzahahira igihe bizaba byaguye.

Prof Kasai ati “Uko kwezi nako nikugera ukamenya ko bizamanuka, nabwo ntabwo uri buyigure, uwo ni umushoramari. Noneho tujye mu buhinzi, umuhinzi azi ko ari bugure imbuto atanga 1000 Frw ku kilo, akaba azi ko niyeza ikilo kizaba kiri kuri 900 Frw, azahinga? Murumva rero ni ryo rya shyano ry’ubukungu navugaga.”

“Abantu bamaze kumenya ko ibiciro bigenda bimanuka, nta shoramari ribaho, nta guhinga bibaho, nta gushora imari bibaho, noneho na twa tundi twagayaga, yego ntitwamara kabiri kuko abantu bakwicwa n’inzara wenda buri muntu akihingira, ariko nta wahinga ibyo kujyana ku isoko azi ko ibiciro bizamanuka.”

Muri icyo gihe ngo abashinzwe politiki y’ifaranga bakangarana kurusha iyo ibiciro birimo kuzamuka.

Ibyo ngo ni yo mpamvu usanga abashinzwe ubukungu biha intego ko izamuka ry’ibiciro mu bihugu byateye imbere riba ari nka 2%, naho mu Rwanda bikaba 5%.

Prof Kasai ati “Ariko ntitwifuza zeru.”

Mu Rwanda umubare wa nyuma ufatwa nk’ushobora kwihanganirwa ni izamuka rya 8%.

Ibicuruzwa by'ibintu bitandukanye bikomeje kuzamuka ku isoko

Ingamba mu guhangana n’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu Rwanda

Zimwe mu ngamba leta yafashe, harimo gutangira gushaka uburyo ibicuruzwa bitarimo kuboneka ku isoko ry’u Rwanda byarushaho kuboneka, mu guhuza ibikenewe n’ibiboneka ku isoko.

U Rwanda rurimo gushaka uko isukari yahenze ku isoko yarushaho kuboneka, ndetse nko mu bijyanye na lisansi na mazutu, leta ikomeje kwigomwa amahoro ngo ikumire izamukarikabije ry’ibiciro.

Izamuka ariko ryo rikomeza kugaragara.

Indi mpamvu ishobora gutera izamuka ry’ibiciro, ni amafaranga menshi ashobora kuba ari mu mabanki.

Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda iheruka gufata icyemezo cyo kuzamura igipimo cy’inyungu iha banki z’ubucuruzi kizwi nka Repo Rate, kigera kuri 5%.

Ni ukuvuga ko iyo amabanki y’ubucuruzi ajyanye amafaranga yayo muri BNR, ahabwa urwunguko rungana rutyo.

Prof Kasai yavuze ko ari icyemezo gifatwa hagamijwe kugabanya amafaranga armo gukwirakwira mu mabanki, iyo bigaragara ko harimo ay’umurengera ashobora guteza izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko.

Ati “Ayo mafaranga y’umurengera niyo akunda kuba nyirabayazana w’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko. Ni ukuvuga ngo banki z’ubucuruzi abantu bazigana bose baje gusaba imyenda zabahaye, bagasigarana andi wavuga ngo ntawe babonye bayaha. Ayo mafaranga iyo banki nkuru itayacunze ngo iyavaneyo, azana ibibazo by’izamuka ry’ibiciro.”

“Bigera ha handi bimeze nko kuba wamaze kugura ibintu byose ushaka, wenda abantu bakuru bazi kuzigama, nk’umwana umuhaye amafaranga akagura utwo akunda [...], atangira kugera aho ibyo yashakaga yabona amaze kubikora noneho agatangira kuyanyanyagiza mu bandi bana.”

“Icyo gihe icyo banki nkuru ikora iyo ibona amafaranga yabaye umurengera, kuko buri munsi turabibona, tuba tuzi amafaranga ari mu mabanki, tuba tuzi n’amafaranga ari hanze ya banki, ari mu bantu, umubare tuba tuwufite. Ayo aba ari gukoreshwa,”

Muri icyo gihe ngo bishobora korohera abantu kubona amafaranga muri banki, akarushaho kuba menshi mu bantu.

“Iyo ayo amabanki afite ari mu bubiko bwabo batakoresheje, ayo mafaranga tuba tugomba kuyavanayo. Noneho icyo gihe Repo Rate, nicyo gipimo BNR igabanyirizaho amafaranga kuko ntiwababwira ngo muyazane gusa, keretse ukoresheje igitugu, ahubwo urababwira uti muyazane, BNR irashaka kwiguriza, ariko ntacyo tuba dushaka kuyakoresha BNR nta bucuruzi ikora.”

“Iyo tubonye hari umurengera ushobora guteza ihindagurika ry’ibiciro turababwira tuti muyatugurize, tubaha iyungu ya 5% ku minsi irindwi akenshi, ariko ishobora no kuba itanu, ishobora no kuba itatu. Icyo gihe haba habaye iteganyamibare rikorwa buri munsi.”

Nibura buri gitondo kuva saa tatu n’igice kugeza saa yine, haba inama yo kureba ishyirwa mu bikorwa rya politiki y’ifaranga.

Icyo gihe iyo bigaragaye ko uwo murengera ushobora kumara iminsi itatu, BNR iyafata iminsi itatu, gutyo gutyo.

“Turabungukira ku nyungu z’igihugu kugira ngo hataza ikibazo cy’ihindagurika ry’ibiciro. BNR iremeye isohoye amafaranga kuko ayo mafaraga isohora aruta kuba igihugu cyangwa mu ihindagurika ry’ibiciro rinini.”

“Iyo amafaranga yabaye make rero, ukabona ayo abantu bakeneye ntabwo amabanki ayujuje, ubwo BNR irayatanga, ishobora gutera umupira iwujyana imbere cyangwa iwujyana inyuma, bitewe n’uko ikibazo cyaje giteye.”

BNR amafaranga ishobora kuyaka gusa amabanki, nta muturage uzamo hagati aho.


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