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2022: Umwaka wanze gutanga agahenge ku isoko

Yanditswe na Rabbi Malo Umucunguzi
Kuya 21 Ukuboza 2022 saa 11:47
Yasuwe :

Kenshi iyo umwaka usatira umusozo hari ubwo umuntu yiruhutsa ko hari ikintu runaka akize, cyangwa akicinya icyara ko indoto ze yazigezeho, agatagira kuzamura urukiramende azasimbuka mu mwaka ukurikiyeho.

Ni nako bimeze kuri benshi batorohewe n’ibiciro ku masoko, nubwo basesenguzi batanga icyizere cy’ibihe biri imbere.

Mu Ukuboza 2021, ibiciro ku isoko byari byazamutseho 1.9%, ndetse icyo gihe ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byari byazamutseho 2.1 ku ijana.

Burya si buno. Mu gihe dusatira ukundi Ukuboza, imibare yerekana ko mu Ugushyingo 2022 ibiciro ku masoko yo mu mijyi ari nabyo bigenderwaho ku rwego rw’igihugu, byazamutse kuri 21,7%, ndetse ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 45,4%.

Ni ukuvuga ko nk’ikintu cyo kurya cyaguraga 100 Frw mu Ugushyingo 2021, ubu kigeze ku mpuzandengo ya 145 Frw.

Nubwo mu Rwanda biri hejuru, abandi barahoze. Nka Türkiye, mu Ugushyingo ibiciro byazamutse kuri 84.4%, icyo gihe kandi byari byamanutse kuko mu kwezi kwabanje byazamutse kuri 85.5%.

Ni izamuka ahanini ryagize ingaruka zikomeye ku biciro by’ibiribwa n’ibijyanye n’ingufu.

Ibiciro by'ibiribwa byakomeje kuzamuka kurusha ibindi mu Rwanda

Impamvu ni nyinshi

Ni urugendo rutari rwitezwe na benshi, nubwo abahanga mu bukungu babonaga ko byanze bikunze muri uyu mwaka hazaba izamuka ry’ibiciro.

Umwaka wa 2021 wari ugizwe n’igice cy’ifungwa ry’ibikorwa kubera icyorezo cya COVID-19, ariko mu gice cya kabiri cy’uwo mwaka, ubukungu bwatangiye gufunguka.

Ibyo abahanga bahise babona ko mu ntangiro za 2022, hashobora kuzabaho izamuka ry’ibiciro rishingiye ku gitutu cy’ibikenewe ku isoko byabaye bike, mu gihe ubushobozi bw’abaturage bwo kubihaha bwatagiye kuzahuka.

Ibyo nabyo ariko ntabwo byabayeho nta kiguzi bisabye.

Ingamba zo guhangana na COVID-19 zaramiye ubuzima bw’abaturage bagatangira ingano, ariko burya icya mbere ni ubuzima, ibindi bjya ku isoko!

COVID-19 yatumye ubushomeri bwiyongera, ndetse igihugu kizamura igipimo cy’amadeni gifata, ava kuri 56.8 ku ijana by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu (GDP) mu 2019 agera kuri 73.3 mu 2021.

Igipimo cy’ubushomeri mu gihugu cyarazamutse, aho mu gihembwe cya mbere cy’uyu mwaka cyari 16.5 ku ijana - imibare ikiri hejuru y’uko byari bimeze mbere ya COVID-19 - maze ibyo byose bigira ingaruka kuri bwa bushobozi bw’umuturage.

Icyo gitutu cyaje kuremerezwa n’intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine, ibihugu bisa n’ibitunze isi ku biribwa by’ibinyampeke bitanga ifarini, n’inyongeramusaruro ikoreshwa mu buhinzi.

Iri zamuka ry’ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga ryaje risanga ikirere kitabaye cyiza, bigira ingaruka ku musaruro w’ubuhinzi ntiwaboneka uko bikwiye.

Imibare y’Ikigo cy’Ibarurishamibare igaragaza ko iki kibazo cyo kigihare, kuko mu mibare y’igihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu wazamutse ku 10 ku ijana.

Mu musaruro wabonetse uwubaze mu mafaranga, mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022 wageze kuri miliyari 3,583 Frw. Serivisi zifitemo 47 ku ijana, inganda ubariyemo n’ibikorwa by’ubwubatsi bifitemo 21, ubuhinzi bukagira 24 ku ijana, mu gihe 8 ku ijana uharirwa imisoro n’izindi nkunganire byashyizweho.

Mu gihe nk’urwego rwa serivisi rwazamutse kuri 17 ku ijana, urwego rw’ubuhinzi rwazamutseho 1 ku ijana, ndetse rwari rugize 0.3 ku ijana muri rya zamuka ry’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu.

Ikigo cy’ibarurishamibare gisobanura ko "Mu rwego rw’ubuhinzi, umusaruro w’ibiribwa wagabayutseho 1 ku ijana, n’umusaruro w’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga ugabanyukaho 1 ku ijana."

Ibyo bikerekana ko izahuka ry’ibikorwa byinshi ritajyanye n’izahuka ry’ibyo bakenera, nabyo bigatuma ibiciro bizamuka.

Ingamba nyinshi zarafashwe

Guverinoma y’u Rwanda yafashe ingamba zitandukanye mu guhangana n’izamuka ry’ibiciro, ishyiraho za nkunganire ku ifumbiremvaruganda itumizwa mu mahanga, ndetse ikagenda yigomwa imuisoro imwe n’imwe, kugira ngo abantu boroherwe no guhaha ibikomoka kuri peteroli.

Yanafashe ingamba zirimo kuzamura igipimo fatizo cyayo cyavuye kuri 4.5% cyakoreshwaga mu bihe bya COVID-19 ubu kigeze kuri 6.5%, mu buryo bwo kugabanya uburyo abantu babonamo amafaranga mu mabanki byoroshye, bityo nabo bagabanye uburyo bayatanga ku byo bahaha, bigarabanye igitutu cy’abashaka kuzamura ibiciro.

Ni uburyo ariko bwo gukumira izamurwa ry’ibiciro by’ibintu by’imbere mu gihugu, cyangwa rya zamurwa rikorwa n’abacuruzi mu kigare, wenda kuko amavuta yo guteka yazamutse, n’igiciro cya dodo bakakizamura.

Iyo abaturage batiteguye gutanga amafaranga ku kintu runaka kubera ko kuyabona mu mabanki bigoye, n’umucuruzi agenza make mu kuzamura bya biciro, nubwo bigoye ko yarekera iyo.

Mu Ugushyingo kandi Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda yazamuye igipimo cy’ubwizigame bw’amabanki gisubizwa kuri 5% cyahozeho mbere ya COVID-19, mu gushishikariza banki gutanga ubutumwa bwo kuzigama, kurusha gusohora amafaranga.

Ku rundi ruhande ariko, izi ngamba zifasha mu kugabanya inkubiri y’ibiciro bitumbagizwa imbere mu gihugu kubera ko n’ibindi byazamutse nubwo byaba ntaho bihuriye, kuko nk’u Rwanda rutabasha kugenga izamuka ry’igiciro cy’ibikomoa kuri peteroli, ubu kiri hejuru ya 1500 Frw.

Gutumiza mu mahanga ibijyaye n’ingufu byakomeje kugira ingaruka, aho nko kubera ko ubu bihenze cyane, byazamuye ikiyuranyo mu mafaranga u Rwanda rutanga mu mahanga n’ayo ruvanayo, ndetse itegayamibare ry’Ikigega mpuzamahanga cy’imari (IMF), rigaragaza ko muri uyu mwaka wa 2022 rishobora kuzagera ku 10.5 ku ijana bya GDP.

Nyamara izamuka ry’ibijyanye n’ingufu rigira ingaruka ku bindi byose, kuko ubwikorezi buri mu bigena uko ibintu runaka bizagurishwa bigeze ku isoko.

Twizere ibitangaza mu 2023?

Kugeza ubu hari icyizere cy’uko ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli bizakomeza kumanuka, nubwo hataramenyekana ikiguzi kizazanwa n’icyemezo u Burayi na Amerika bafatiye peteroli y’u Burusiya ko itagomba kurenza $60 ku kaguguru, ngo igume kuri 5% munsi y’igiciro cya peteroli y’abandi.

Ku rundi ruhande, ibihugu bicukura peteroli (OPEC+) byagumishijeho igabanywa ry’utugunguru miliyoni ebyiri kuri peteroli icukurwa ku munsi kugeza mu mperaza 2023, bigabanya umuvuduko w’imanuka ry’ibiciro.

Ibijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe byo ubibara ubibonye, aka wa mugani bacira umuntu udahozaho ko ahinduka nk’ikirere.

Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe uyobora Ishami rishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, BNR, aheruka kubwira IGIHE ko mu bigaragara, uyu mwaka uzaragira ibiciro bikiri hejuru.

Ati "Iyo urebye rero izamuka ry’ibiciro, turabona impuzadengo y’umwaka, izamuka ry’ibiciro rizaba riri hejuru ya 13% ho gato, kuko iteganyamibare ritwereka 13.2%. Mu ntangiriro z’umwaka utaha naho bizakomeza kuba hejuru, ni nako bigaragara no ku rwego rw’isi kandi duhahirana n’ibindi bihugu."

"Ariko twabireba neza tukabona mu mwaka utaha umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro umaze kugabanyuka, ku buryo duteganya ko izamuka ry’ibiciro rizaba rimaze gusubiza mu mbago BNR yifuza, itarenga 8%. Aho ni mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka utaha."

Mu gihe amaso ahanzwe umusaruro w’ubuhinzi ushobora gutanga agahenge, Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe ubumenyi bw’ikirere, Meteo Rwanda, gisaba abahinzi n’abafatanyabikorwa mu buhinzi gukomeza neza ibikorwa by’ubuhinzi muri iki igihembwe cy’ihinga cya 2023A.

Mu butumwa cyashyize ahagaragara kigira kiti "Muri iki gihembwe cy’ihinga 2023A, ahenshi mu gihugu ibihingwa biri mu gihe cyo kuzana indabo. Kubera ibihe by’imvura nyinshi bishobora gutuma havuka indwara z’ibihingwa, abahinzi barasabwa gukurikiranira hafi ibihingwa."

"Abahinzi kandi baragirwa inama yo gukomeza gufata amazi y’imvura, gusibura imirwanyasuri imusozi n’ahandi hahanamye, gusibura imiyoboro y’amazi mu bishanga n’imibande ndetse no gutera imiti yabugenewe irwanya indwara ku mababi no ku mizi."

Uwo ni wo musaruro uzatanga ishusho y’ubuhinzi, n’ibyo abantu bazakura ku masoko mu mezi ya mbere ya 2023.

Nubwo impamvu z’imbere mu gihugu zigerageza gushakirwa umuti, impungenge ziracyari zose ku bibazo bituruka hanze y’igihugu, nk’ibishamikiye ku ntambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine.

U Burusiya buracyatera ibisasu, ahari imirima y’ubuhinzi ubu ni isibaniro ku rugamba, ku buryo ibinyampeke biva muri kiriya gihugu bitazasubira uko byahoze mu gihe cya vuba.

Icyakora, bijyanye n’ingamba ibihugu birimo gufata mu gusigasira ubukungu bwabyo, ziratanga icyizere ko umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro ushobora kumanuka.

Imiterere y'izamuka ry'ibiciro buri kwezi mu Rwanda, mu 2022

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