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Urwijiji ku bihe biri imbere: intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine ishobora kugarika ingogo i Burayi

Yanditswe na Rabbi Malo Umucunguzi
Kuya 7 July 2022 saa 07:37
Yasuwe :

Kuva ku wa 24 Gashyantare 2022, toni nyinshi z’ibisasu by’u Burusiya zikomeje kwisuka ku bikorwaremezo bya Ukraine, ndetse urujijo ni rwose ku iherezo ry’iyi ntambara. Ni ibintu bitaherukaga hagati y’ibihugu by’i Burayi.

Ni urugamba rwanuganuzwe igihe kirekire, haherewe ku makenga n’urwikekwe hagati ya NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) n’u Burusiya.

NATO ni ihuriro rya gisirikare rigizwe n’ibihugu 30, birimo 28 byo mu Burayi, wongeyeho Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Canada. Ni ibihugu byitwara nk’ibihatse ibindi, kubera ingingo ya 5 y’amategeko ryubakiyeho.

Iteganya ko igitero kigabwe kuri umwe cyangwa benshi mu banyamuryango, gifatwa nk’ikigabwe ku banyamuryango bose, bagafatanya "kwivuna umwanzi."

Ni bwo bufatanye bwagendeweho barasa kuri Afghanistan mu 2001 cyangwa Libya mu 2011 ubwo bashyiraga iherezo ku butegetsi bwa Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

Umuzi w’ihangana rya NATO n’u Burusiya

Reka duhere ubwo NATO yashingwaga mu 1949. Icyo gihe yari igizwe n’ibihugu 12 gusa.

Iri huriro ryashizwe mu bihe by’intambara y’ubutita, intego nyamukuru ari uguhangana n’igitutu cy’Ubumwe bw’Aba-Soviet bwahurizaga hamwe repubulika 15.

NATO yakomeje kwaguka nubwo Ubumwe bwa Soviet bwari bumaze gusenyuka

Abashinze NATO bashakaga gukumira ko icyo gihugu cya rutura cyari gifite kilometero kare miliyoni 22,4 cyakomeza kwagura amaboko, kikigarurira ibihugu byo mu Burayi ndetse kikototera n’ibindi bice.

Mu 1991, icyari ubumwe bw’Aba-soviet cyacitsemo ibice kubera imvururu za politiki, kirundukana n’ubutegetsi bwa Mikhail Gorbachev.

Hahise havuka ibihugu 15 byigenga by’u Burusiya, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan na Uzbekistan.

Ubumwe bw’Aba-Soviet bwatumye NATO ishingwa bwararimbutse, yo irasigara ahubwo ikomera kurushaho.

Benshi mu mpuguke batekerezaga ko kuva Ubumwe bw’aba-Soviet busenyutse, ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba bishobora kubaka imibanire mishya n’u Burusiya ariko si ko byagenze.

Umwanya uhoraho Soviet Union yari ifite mu kanama k’Umuryango w’Abibumbye gashinzwe umutekano na ambasade yari ifite mu mahanga, byabaye iby’u Burusiya.

U Burusiya bwaragambaniwe

Mu gushaka uko u Burusiya bwabaho nk’igihugu ukwacyo, giteganye, hagarukwa ku biganiro byaje kubuhuza na NATO. Bwayoborwaga na Perezida Boris Yeltsin.

Intumwa za Moscow na Washington zaje kwizezanya ko NATO nta mugambi ifite wo kwaguka yerekeza mu burasirazuba - ku ruhande rugana ku Burusiya - ku buryo nta bushotoranyi bwashoboraga gupfa kubaho.

Hatangwa urugero ku nyandiko (memo) y’Ubunyamabanga bwa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bushinzwe ububanyi n’amahanga mu 1990. Yavugaga ko bitari mu nyungu zayo cyangwa NATO kwakira ibihugu byari bikiva muri Soviet Union.

Ikomeza iti "Ntabwo twifuza mu buryo ubwo ari bwo bwose, ihuriro rirwanya aba-soviet risangiye umupaka na Soviet. Iryo huriro ryakwakirwa nabi n’aba-Soviet."

Muri icyo gihe uwari umunyamabanga wa Leta ushinzwe ububanyi n’amahanga wa Amerika, James Baker - ku bwa Perezida George H.W. Bush - mu biganiro na Mikhail Gorbachev ku wa 9 Gashyantare 1990, yamuhaye icyizere ko Nato idateze kuzigera yaguka igana mu Burasirazuba, u Burusiya nibwemera u Budage bukihuza.

Icyo gihe uburasirazuba bw’u Budage bwagenzurwaga na Soviet Union, ubw’uburengerazuba bukagenzurwa na Amerika, u Bwongereza n’u Bufaransa.

Ikosa ryakozwe icyo gihe ni uko muri ibyo biganiro byose, nta na hamwe iyo ngigo y’ukutaguka kwa NATO ijya mu burasirazuba yashyizwe mu nyandiko, ngo yemezwe nk’itegeko cyangwa politiki yemeranyijweho, izagenderwaho.

Bitandukanye n’ibyaganirwaga, NATO yaje kuba umuryango ufunguriwe ibihugu byinshi, iza kwinjizamo ibihugu 11 byo mu Burayi bw’Iburasirazuba na bitatu byahoze mu Ubumwe bw’Aba-Soviet.

U Burusiya bwarakajwe n’ibyo bikorwa, bubyita ubugambanyi.

Putin yahagurukije u Burusiya

U Burusiya bwakomeje kuba igihugu kicyishakisha, cyashegeshwe no gucikamo ibice, kugeza mu 2000 ubwo Vladmir Putin yajyaga ku butegetsi.

Yongeye guhamya igitinyiro iki gihugu cyahoranye haba mu bukungu, politiki n’igisirikare.

Hagati aho, yabonaga ibihugu byahoze mu Ubumwe bwaba-Soviet nk’ibikwiye kuba abarwanashyaka b’u Burusiya, kurusha kwiyunga n’uburengerazuba.

Mu 2007 ubwo yari mu nama y’umutekano ya Munich mu Budage, Putin yamaganye NATO ishaka kubasatira ngo yigarurire ibihugu byegereye u Burusiya, maze ihashinge za missiles n’ibikoresho bikumira ibisasu byava mu Burusiya.

Yagize ati "Ntabwo nshaka gukekeranya ku bushotoranyi bw’uwo ari we wese, ariko niba izo ntwaro zikumira za missile atari twe zigambiriye, natwe missiles zacu ntabwo zizabaganaho."

Perezida Putin ubwo yari mu nama ya Munich mu 2007

Agahenge hagati y’u Burusiya na NATO kakomeje gusugira, ahanini kagaterwa n’intera yari iri hagati y’izi mpande zihanganye.

Urwikekwe ku ruhande rw’u Burusiya rwazamutse ubwo Pologne, Hongrie na Repubulika ya Czech byatangiraga urugendo rwo kwinjira muri NATO, ndetse biba abanyamuryango byuzuye mu 1999.

Byafashe indi ntera ubwo NATO yinjiraga mu biganiro n’ibihugu bya Georgia na Ukraine, ku buryo byaganishaga ku kwinjira mu muryango.

Ubwo Ukraine yateraga intambwe ya mbere yo kujya muri NATO mu 2008, u Burusiya bweruye ko ari ikibazo gikomeye ku mutekano wabwo.

Bwasabye ko Ukraine iba igihugu kidafite uruhande kibogamiyeho muri za zindi ebyiri. Nyamara, kujya muri NATO bisa n’aho bitari ubushake bwite bwa Ukraine, ahubwo ibihugu biri muri NATO, by’umwihariko Amerika, bifite inyungu zikomeye mu kugera neza mu marembo y’u Burusiya.

Byabaye ibintu bigoye kuri Viktor Yanukovych wari Perezida, wahisemo kuryama cyane ku bwumvikane n’u Burusiya.

Mu gihugu hahise havuka imyigaramyo ikomeye yashyigikiwe n’uburengerazuba bw’isi, Perezida Yanukovych ahungira mu Burusiya mu 2014.

Hakurikiyeho akavuyo gakomeye mu gihugu, agace ka Crimea kabaga kuri Ukraine birangira kemeje ko kagomba kugengwa n’u Burusiya.

Izindi mpinduka zikomeye zabaye ni uko igice cy’uburasirazuba bwa Ukraine kizwi nka Donbas cyagiye mu maboko y’abantu bigumuye, bashyigikiwe n’u Burusiya.

Mu 2018 Ukraine yahinduye itegeko nshinga, ivanaho kuba igihugu kidafite aho kibogamiye hagati ya NATO n’u Burusiya- yiyemeza gusanga iri huriro.

Guverinoma ya Kyiv yatangiye guhangana n’imitwe yigumuye yafashe igice cy’uburasirazuba, ahanini yiganjemo abavuga Ikirusiya.

Byabyaye intambara yeruye

Bijya gucika, u Burusiya bwemeje ko uduce tubiri tunini twigumuye ku butegetsi bwa Ukraine, Luhansk na Donetsk - ibice bigize Donbas, ari repubulika zigenga za rubanda, ndetse ko bitegura gufungura imikoranire ya dipolomasi.

Ukraine yakomeje kubarasaho nk’abigumuye ku butegetsi, u Burusiya buza kuvuga ko abayobozi bayo bafite umugambi wo gutsemba abaturage bavuga Ikirusiya.

Ku wa 24 Gashyantare 2022, u Burusiya bwatangije ibikorwa bya gisirikare muri Ukraine.

Mu mpamvu zabwo harimo guhatira Ukraine kutaba igicumbi cya NATO, no gutabara za “repubulika” zabutabaje, ngo ngo Ukraine "ihagarike ubwicanyi muri Donbas."

Ibyo bikorwa byose u Burusiya bwavuze ko bigirwamo uruhare b’abantu bafite imyumvire y’aba-Nazi.

Ambasaderi w’u Burusiya mu Rwanda, Karen Chalyan, aheruka kubwira IGIHE ati "Ntitwari twiteguye kwihanganira ko missiles za NATO zishyirwa ahantu wakoresha iminota itanu ukaba ugeze i Moscow. Oya. Aho ni ho twafashe icyemezo cyo kugira icyo dukora. Iyo tukubwiye ntiwumve, twebwe turakora. Ni gutyo, biroroshye."

NATO ishaka kurangiza u Burusiya

Mu gihe bisa n’ibikigoranye ko Ukraine yakwinjira muri NATO, ku gice cya ruguru, Suède na Finlande isangiye n’u Burusiya umupaka wa kilometero 1,340, byemeje ko bishaka kujya muri NATO ndetse urugendo rugeze kure.

Perezida Putin aheruka kuvuga ko uburyo bazahangana n’inkeke zizaturuka muri ibyo bihugu, ari ikiraro bazambuka bakigezeho.

Nyamara amateka yerekana ko NATO yashinzwe kubera Ubumwe bw’Aba-Soviet kandi ibisigisigi byabwo ni u Burusiya.

Ubwo bwateraga Ukraine, NATO yabonye urwaho rwo gutangira koherezayo intwaro z’amoko yose.

Harimo za Javelins, intwaro zirasa missile zifasha cyane cyane mu kurasa ibifaru by’intambara. Zirashishwa umuntu azishyize ku rutugu, ku buryo zifasha cyane mu ntambara.

Ibihugu byo mu Burayi na Amerika byahaye Ukraine Javelins nyinshi, zishobora kurasa ibifaru by'intambara

Amerika kandi ikomeje kohereza intwaro nyinshi muri Ukraine kimwe n’ibindi bihugu bigize NATO, zikubye inshuro nyinshi inkunga z’ubutabazi baha icyo gihugu.

Mu minsi ishize Inteko Ishinga Amategeko ya Amerika yemeje ingengo y’imari ya miliyari $40 ya gisirikare, ubukungu n’inkunga kuri Ukraine.

Perezida Joe Biden yaje kuvuga ko yari yasabye ingengo y’imari ya miliyari $33 ariko abagize inteko bahitamo kuyongera. Ibyo bigaragaza ubushake abanyamerika bafite muri iyi ntambara, kuko bifuza ko yabakiza umwanzi wabo w’ibihe byose.

Intwaro Amerika irimo guha Ukraine zirimo za M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System cyangwa HIMARS, intwaro zishobora kohereza ibisasu byinshi, byungikanya, kandi mu ntera ndende ishobora kugera kuri kilometero hafi 80.

Mu kwezi gushize Amerika yahaye Ukraine HIMARS enye

Ni intwaro u Burusiya bwakomeje kugaragaza ko nizikoreshwa mu kurasa ku butaka bwabwo, buzatangira gukoresha intwaro zisumbuyeho.

Hamwe n’ibihano uruhuri byafatiwe u Burusiya n’Abarusiya, bigaragaza ubushake uburengerazuba bufite bwo kurangiza u Burusiya.

Nyamara izi ntwaro zose n’ibisasu birimo guturikira kuri teritwari ya Ukraine, ku buryo ubuyobozi buvuga ko aho ibintu bigeze, kongera gusana igihugu byasaba nibura miliyari $750.

Ukraine yahagaritse ibiganiro n’u Burusiya, ubu intego ni ugutsinda intambara hakoreshejwe umunwa w’imbunda n’imbarutso z’ibisasu.

Nyamara ibintu ntabwo birimo kugenda neza uko Ukraine ishaka.

Nta munsi w’ubusa u Burusiya budatangaza ko bwaturikije intwaro yari ihawe n’uburengerazuba, ndetse mu minsi ibiri ishize byemejwe ko Luhansk yafashwe, Donetsk nayo yugarijwe. Mu minsi mike Putin ashobora gutangaza ko yageze ku ntego ze zo kubohora Donbas.

Ingaruka zishobora kuba mbi kurushaho

Intambara ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya yateje ikibazo cy’izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro ku isi ku bikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibiribwa, ndetse ibihugu bikomeye birimo kuryumva neza nk’ibikennye.

Nko muri Amerika, ibiciro ku isoko muri Gicurasi byazamutse ku 8.6%, umubare waherukaga mu myaka 40 ishize, mu 1981.

Izo ngaruka zarenze imipaka, muri Gicurasi ibiciro ku isoko mu Rwanda byazamutseho 12.6% mu mijyi, ndetse muri uyu mwaka bishobora kuzazamukaho 9.5 ku ijana.

Uretse ibijyanye n’ibiciro ku masoko, ibihugu bigize NATO bikomeje kurwana n’u Burusiya mu isura ya Ukraine ihangaye n’u Burusiya.

Hari ubwoba ko mu gihe kiri imbere, akantu gato cyane gashobora guteza intambara yeruye yakwinjiramo ibi bihugu ku mugaragaro, noneho aho kohereza intwaro bikagerekaho abasirikare.

Mu icengezamatwara ry’uburengerazuba bw’Isi, bakomeza kugaruka ku buzima bwa Putin nk’impamvu ishobora kugena iherezo ry’iyi ntambara.

Umuyobozi w’ubutasi bwa gisirikare muri Ukraine, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, aheruka kubwira Sky News ko Putin arembye kubera kanseri.

Ku bwe, ngo u Burusiya burimo gicika intege ku buryo Ukraine ifite icyizere ko "mu bice byinshi imirwano izaba yarangiye kugeza mu gice cya kabiri cya Kanama."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov avuga ko Putin arembye, nyamara yakomeje kugaragara mu bikorwa byinshi

Bitarenze uyu mwaka, ngo bashaka kuba bisubije Donbas yose ndetse n’agace ka Crimea.

Biragoye kwemeza neza ko ibivugwa kuri Putin n’u Burusiya ariko biri, kuko uburengerazuba bugenzura igice kinini cy’isakazamakuru muri iyi ntambara, ku buryo ibinyamakuru byinshi byahindutse imashini z’icengezamatwara rya NATO.

Nyamara Perezida Putin yakomeje imirimo ye no kwitabira ibikorwa byinshi nk’ibisanzwe, harimo n’ibimusaba kujya mu mahanga.

Ariko ibihano byo biriho ndetse biri gutoneka u Burusiya.

Kugeza ubu intambara irarwanwa mu buryo busanzwe, hakoreshejwe intwaro zemewe, ndetse Donbas iri hafi kugwa mu maboko y’u Burusiya.

Gusa mu gihe intwaro Ukraine ikomeza guhabwa zagira icyo zihindura mu migendekere y’urugamba, ibihano bikarushaho gushegesha u Burusiya mu buryo bwo gukora intwaro zisimbura izakoreshejwe mu ntambara, ingabo zabwo muri Ukraine zigasumbirizwa, byashyira ihurizo kuri iyi ntambara.

Ese hacura iki u Burusiya busanze uburyo rukumbi busigaye bwo guhosha intambara ari ugukoresha intwaro kirimbuzi?

Yego ibihugu byinshi bifite intwaro kirimbuzi ariko u Burusiya buza imbere.

U Burusiya buza imbere mu bihugu bifite intwaro nyinshi za kirimbuzi

Mu bindi bihugu, u Bushinwa bufite 350, Pakistan ifite 165, u Buhinde 160, Israel 90, naho Korea ya Ruguru ifite 20.

Kugeza ubu hari ibibazo bitatu bikomeye: Icya mbere, ese koko aho ibintu bigeze, hari icyizere ko u Burusiya buzatsinda Ukraine n’amaboko akomeye arimo kuyisunika ya NATO?

Biragoye cyane ndetse bishobora kuba intambara yafata igihe kirekire, ku bwa burembe ishobora kwifashishwamo intwaro z’ubumara.

Nubwo u Burusiya bufite intwaro nyinshi kandi zikomeye kurusha iza Ukraine, na yo si igihugu cyoroshye kuko gikora intwaro nyinshi. Byongeye, ni igihugu cya gatatu gifite igisirikare kinini mu Burayi.

Aho bigeze ariko u Burusiya burimo gutsinda kandi mu buryo bukomeye. Busa n’ubwashyize imbaraga zose ku burasirazuba bwa Ukraine (Donbas), ndetse iki gice kiri hafi gufatwa cyose.

Birashoboka ko nyuma y’iyo ntsinzi, u Burusiya bushobora gutungurana bugatangaza ko buhagaritse ibitero ku bindi bice bya Ukraine, intambara igahosha.

Icyakora, kuri uyu wa 5 Nyakanga 2022, Perezida w’Inteko Ishinga Amategeko y’u Burusiya, Vyacheslav Volodin, yavuze ko intambara ishobora guhagarara.

Gusa yagaragaje impungenge ku bisasu biva muri Ukraine bikagwa mu Burusiya, bikica abaturage ndetse bigasenya ibikorwaremezo.

Ati "Abantu benshi babaza intego yacu iyo ariyo, ndetse n’igihe ibi bizarangirira. Bizarangira igihe imijyi yacu itagiterwaho ibisasu. Ibyo barimo (Abanya-Ukraine) gukora ni uguhatira ingabo zacu kudahagarikira ku mipaka ya Repubulika ya rubanda ya Luhansk na Repubulika ya rubanda ya Donetsk, kubera ko ibisasu (bigwa mu Burusiya) birimo guturuka mu duce twa Kharkiv n’ahandi muri Ukraine."

Ikibazo cya Kabiri, ese Ukraine irindiriye gutsinda iyi ntambara, yaba isigaye kuki? Yaba yarabaye amatongo uhereye ku byabaye Mariupol, Severodonetsk n’ahandi abasirikare bayo batinze kumanika amaboko.

Ikibazo cya gatatu, u Burusiya butsinzwe iyi ntambara, bwasigarana iki? Ni igihugu u Burayi na Amerika byagaragaje ko bishaka ko kijya ku mavi, ku buryo gutsindwa iyi ntwambara byashyira iherezo kuri Putin n’ubuhanganye bw’u Burusiya.

Mu gihe u Burayi na Amerika byamaze kwerekana ko bishyigikiye Ukraine, igihugu cyagerageje gushyigikira u Burusiya ni Belarus.

Hari ibihugu bikomeye ariko byakomeje guceceka ku buryo bigoye kumenya icyo bijunditse, nk’u Bushinwa bwamaganye NATO, bukaryumaho ku cyemezo cy’u Burusiya cyo gutera Ukraine.

Ibindi bihugu bikomeye byanze kwitandukanya n’u Burusia ngo bibufatire ibihano nk’abandi ni Turikiya, u Buhinde, Arabie Saoudite, Iran. Brazil, n’ibindi.

Urebye imbaraga uburengerazuba burimo gushyira muri iyi ntambara, iherezo ryayo rizahamya igitinyiro n’ubuhangange bya Putin n’u Burusiya cyangwa ugupfukama kw’igihugu cyari kimaze igihe cyubashywe.

Igihari cyo ni uko u Burusiya burimo kurwanira ukubaho kwabwo.

U Burusiya bukomeje kwigarurira ibice byinshi by'uburasirazuba bwa Ukraine

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