Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwahawe inota rya B+ nk’ubutanga icyizere ku rwego mpuzamahanga

Yanditswe na Ndahayo Emmanuel
Kuya 6 Gashyantare 2021 saa 12:43
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Ikigo gikora ubushakashatsi ku myenda ibihugu bifite n’ubushobozi bwabyo bwo kuyishyura, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), cyatangaje ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda butanga icyizere ku bushobozi bw’igihugu bwo kwishyura imyenda gifite ndetse no gukomeza gutera imbere muri rusange.

Muri raporo ya ’S&P Global Ratings’, iki kigo cyavuze ko n’ubwo ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwasubijwe inyuma n’ingaruka za Coronavirus, ariko u Rwanda rwagumanye inota rya B+ ku rwego mpuzamahanga.

S&P itanga amanota ikurikije ubushobozi bw’igihugu bwo kwishyura umwenda bifite, ndetse iyi raporo inashingirwaho n’ibigo n’amabanki ku rwego mpuzamahanga biguriza ibihugu, ku buryo uko igihugu kigira amanota meza ari na ko kigirirwa icyizere cyo guhabwa inguzanyo nini, zihendutse kandi zimara igihe kirekire kuko kiba kigaragaza ubushobozi bwo kuzazishyura mu buryo bworoshye.

Mu 2019, inota ry’u Rwanda ryari ryazamutse, rivanwa kuri B rishyirwa kuri B+, nyuma y’uko umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu wari wakomeje kuzamuka mpuzandengo ya 7% mu myaka irenga 10 yari ishize.

Muri rusange, S&P yatanze ishusho y’uko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku gipimo cya 3,9%, igipimo cyiza ugereranyije n’ibindi bihugu bya Afurika, ariko nanone kiri hasi y’icyo ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwari busanzwe buzamukiraho mu myaka 15 ishize.

Bavuze ko bizafata kugera mu mwaka wa 2022 na 2024, ubwo igihugu kizaba kiri gusoza gahunda y’iterambere ya NST1, kugira ngo ubukungu buzongere kuzamuka ku kigero cya 7,1%.

Inota ry’u Rwanda rishobora kumanurwa

N’ubwo u Rwanda rwagumanye inota rya B+, hari impungenge ko rishobora kumanurwa igihe ibintu byarushaho kugenda nabi.

S&P bavuze ko amezi atandatu kugera kuri 12 ari imbere ari ingenzi cyane ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda, kuko azerekana ubushobozi bw’igihugu bwo guhangana n’ingaruka za Coronavirus, ndetse n’uko igihugu cyiteguye gukomezanya umuvuduko w’iterambere cyari gisanganywe.

S&P yatanze umuburo bagira iti"dushobora kumanura inota ry’u Rwanda mu mezi atandatu kugera kuri 12 ari imbere, igihe ibyo u Rwanda rwinjiza byakomeza kujya munsi y’ibipimo byateganyijwe. Nk’urugero, ibi bishobora kubaho igihe ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, ubukerarugendo ndetse n’amafaranga yoherezwa mu gihugu byarushaho kugabanuka munsi y’igipimo cyateganyijwe".

Bitewe n’uburyo icyorezo cya Coronavirus cyahunganyije ingendo n’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga, inzego zirimo ubukerarugendo bumaze gufatira runini ubukungu bw’u Rwanda zarasenyutse, ndetse yewe n’ibyoherezwa mu muhanga, birimo ibikomoka ku buhinzi n’amabuye y’agaciro bigize igice kinini cy’ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga, byatakaje agaciro kabyo ku isoko mpuzamahanga.

Ibi byagabanyije mu buryo bufatika amadevize igihugu cyinjizaga, kandi ari bwo kiyakeneye cyane kugira ngo kigure ibikoresho byo kwa muganga mu rwego rwo guhangana n’icyorezo cya Coronavirus cyateye kidateguje.

Ni mu gihe kandi ibikorwa birimo gahunda za Guma mu Rugo byakomye mu nkokora ubucuruzi, bigabanya imisoro yinjizwaga na Leta kandi byongera abashomeri bagomba gufashwa na Leta mu kubaha ibiribwa n’ibindi byangombwa, kuko imirimo bakoraga yari ihagaritswe.

Ibi byose byatumye n’ubundi amafaranga yinjizwa na Leta agabanuka cyane, bityo igihugu kijya gushaka amafaranga y’inguzanyo kugira ngo gikomeze ibikorwa by’ingenzi mu gihe kigihanganye n’icyorezo cya Coronavirus, amahirwe akaba yarabaye ko igihugu cyari gisanganywe inguzanyo zidateye impungenge, ku buryo inshya zafashwe kubera Coronavirus zizishyurwa neza mu bihe biri imbere.

S&P ivuga ko mu gihe ibintu bitajya mu buryo neza, nta kabuza inota ry’u Rwanda rishobora kuzagabanywa mu mezi 12 ari imbere.

Icyo u Rwanda ruri gukora mu guhangana n’iki kibazo

N’ubwo kugeza ubu umuntu atamenya neza uko ubukungu bw’Isi buzaba bwifashe mu bihe biri imbere, icyizere cy’uko buzazanzamuka mu mpera z’uyu mwaka gikomeje kuzamuka bitewe ahanini n’itangwa ry’urukingo ku Isi.

U Rwanda ni kimwe mu bihugu bicye cyane bya Afurika byamaze gushyiraho ingamba zizatuma rubasha gukingira abaturage 60% bitarenze umwaka utaha, kandi icyo akaba ari ikigero cyatuma icyorezo cya Coronavirus kitanduka burundu mu gihugu. U Rwanda ruzashora miliyoni 124$ mu kugura izi nkingo.

Ibi bisobanuye ko ibikorwa by’ubukerarugendo bishobora kongera kubyutsa umutwe vuba, ndetse n’ishoramari rikagaruka ku murongo vuba, kuko icyizere cyo guhashya Coronavirus kizaba cyiyongereye.

Leta y’u Rwanda kandi yashyizeho Ikigega cyiswe ’Economic Recovery Fund’ kiri gufasha ibigo bito n’ibiciriritse, kubona ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’igihombo cyatewe na Coronavirus.

Iki kigega cyashyizwemo amafaranga miliyoni 200$, zizafasha ibigo birimo amahoteli asanzwe afite imyenda itubutse muri banki zo mu Rwanda kuko amenshi akiri mashya, bityo akazabasha kubona ubushobozi bwo kwishyura banki ndetse no gukomeza kwitegura ku buryo igihe ubukerarugendo buzaba bugarutse ku murongo, izo hoteli zizahita zisubukura imirimo mu buryo bwihuse.

Leta y’u Rwanda kandi ikomeje amavugurura yo kongera ubwiza bw’ibyo igihugu cyohereza mu mahanga, aho byitezwe ko mu mwaka wa 2024, u Rwanda ruzaba rusarura miliyari y’amadorali mu bikomoka ku buhinzi byoherezwa mu mahanga, avuye kuri miliyoni 419.1$, miliyoni 800$ azaturuka mu bikomoka ku mabuye y’agaciro yoherezwa mu mahanga ndetse na miliyoni 800 azaturuka mu bashyitsi basura u Rwanda.

Ibi byose biramutse bigezweho, n’ubwo bizagorana bitewe n’ingaruka za Coronavirus ku bukungu bw’Isi muri rusange, byatuma igihugu kiziba icyuho kiri guterwa n’iki cyorezo ariko kikanaba kishyizwe mu mwanya mwiza wo kuzaba kiri mu bihugu bifite ubukungu buciriritse mu mwaka wa 2035, dore ko biri mu ntego z’igihugu.

Hagati aho, mu gihe Leta ikomeje kubaka ubushobozi buzatuma yongera amadevize mu myaka iri imbere, ikomeje n’ibikorwa byo gutera inkunga imishinga y’iterambere irimo iy’ubwubatsi, nka rumwe mu rwego rw’ingenzi mu gutanga imirimo, guteza imbere ubucuruzi bw’imbere mu gihugu ndetse n’inganda, cyane cyane izikora ibikoresho by’ubwubatsi.

Mu mishinga ihanzwe amaso cyane itegerejwe harimo iyubakwa ry’ikibuga cy’indege, iyubakwa ry’amashuri, iyubakwa ry’ingomero z’amazi n’amashanyarazi (cyane ko igihugu gifite intego yo kuba cyagejeje amazi n’amashanyarazi ku baturage bose bitarenze umwaka wa 2024), iyubakwa ry’imihanda n’ibindi bikorwaremezo bitandukanye.

S&P yagaragaje ko n’ubwo hari impungenge z’uko igihugu gishobora kuzagira icyuho mu ngengo y’imari igenewe gutera inkunga ibyo bikorwa, ariko hari icyizere ko ibyo Leta iri gukora bizagabanya ingaruka z’icyorezo cya Coronavirus muri rusange.

Bagize bati "Guverinoma ishishikajwe no gufasha abagizweho ingaruka n’icyorezo, aho duteganya ko ibyo bikorwa bizatwara ibingana na 5% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’Igihugu mu myaka y’ingengo y’imari ya 2021 kugera muri 2023. Iyi nkunga igamije kugabanya ingaruka z’icyorezo ku miryango, ubucuruzi bucuriritse ndetse n’inzego zazahaye cyane zirimo urwo kwakira abantu, ubucuruzi ndetse n’ubwikorezi bwo mu kirere".

Kuba Leta y’u Rwanda izakoresha hafi 5% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu mu gufasha inzego zazahajwe cyane na Coronavirus, ni indi mpamvu yerekana ubushake bw’igihugu bwo kuzasohoka muri ibi bihe cyemye, kuko ubusanzwe impuzandengo ku mugabane wa Afurika yabaye 3%, mu gihe mu bihugu bikize ari 7%.

Ubukungu bw'u Rwanda buzakomeza kuzamuka mu myaka iri imbere

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