Ishusho y’uburyo Covid-19 yazahaje ubukungu bw’u Rwanda

Yanditswe na Ndahayo Emmanuel
Kuya 10 Gashyantare 2021 saa 07:30
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U Rwanda kimwe n’ibindi bihugu byose byo ku Isi, rwagezweho n’ingaruka zikomeye z’icyorezo cya Covid-19. Izi ngaruka zatewe ahanini n’ingamba zo kwirinda iki cyorezo, zatumye abantu basabwa kwitandukanya, ahandi ibikorwa bigahagarikwa mu rwego rwo guhashya ikwirakwira ry’icyorezo kitagira umuti n’urukingo.

Mu Rwanda, Leta yafashe ingamba zo kwirinda iki cyorezo rugikubita. Nyuma y’icyumweru kimwe umuntu wa mbere agaragayeho Covid-19 mu Rwanda, ku wa 21 Werurwe, igihugu cyahise gishyiraho gahunda ya Guma mu Rugo yamaze iminsi 45, iba iya mbere yashyizweho muri Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara.

Ni Guma mu Rugo yari ikakaye kuko ibikorwa byose bitari iby’ingenzi ndetse n’imipaka yose byafunzwe.

N’ubwo ibi bikorwa byari ngombwa mu rwego rwo kwirinda ingaruka z’icyorezo cya Covid-19, byagize ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda, ndetse hari ibyago by’uko izi ngaruka zizakomeza no mu myaka myinshi iri imbere, bigakoma mu nkokora intego ngari z’igihugu zirimo kuba cyagize ubukungu buciriritse bitarenze mu mwaka wa 2035.

Kubera Covid-19, umusaruro mbumbe w’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda wagabanutseho 0.2% mu mwaka wa 2020, nyamara wari witezweho kuzamuka ku kigero cya 8% muri uwo mwaka. Iri gabanuka ryatewe n’uko muri cya gihe cya Guma mu Rugo, ibikorwa byakagombye kuba byarazamuye ubukungu bw’igihugu, birimo ubukerarugendo igihugu cyashoyemo akayabo mu myaka ishize, byari bifunzwe.

Birumvikana ko iyo imirimo ifunzwe, n’abantu babura akazi. Imibare ya Raporo ya Banki y’Isi igaruka ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda muri ibi bihe bya Covid-19, igaragaza ko ikigero cy’ubushomeri cyazamutse kikagera kuri 22% kivuye kuri 13% mu mezi igihugu cyari muri Guma mu Rugo ya mbere. Ni mu gihe mu bakomeje gukora muri icyo gihe, abagera kuri 60% bagabanyirijwe umushahara.

Si ibyo gusa kuko umubare w’abantu bafite akazi ugereranyije n’umubare w’abaturage b’u Rwanda, yageze kuri 43% ivuye kuri 48.3%, igabanukaho 5%. Kwiyongera kw’abashomeri birushaho kongera umubare w’abantu bari mu bukene, aho byitezwe ko muri uyu mwaka, umubare w’abakene mu Rwanda uziyongeraho abantu 550 000 ugereranyije n’uko ibintu byari kuba bihagaze iyo Covid-19 itabaho.

Kuko 90% by’abakene mu Rwanda baba mu cyaro, n’ubundi ni cyo kizibasirwa cyane n’ingaruka za Covid-19, aho byitezwe ko imiryango mishya izinjira mu cyiciro cy’abakene mu cyaro, izaba ikubye iyo mu mujyi inshuro 3.2.

Kwiyongera k’ubukene ni imbogamizi ikomeye ku bukungu bwa buri gihugu, kuko bituma Leta ari bwo itakaza byinshi yita ku baturage bakabaye bayitunze binyuze mu misoro ituruka mu bikorwa byabo bibyara inyungu. Ku bw’izo mpamvu, Leta y’u Rwanda irateganya kuzakoresha miliyoni 900$ (arenga miliyari 892 Frw), angana na 4.4% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu, mu rwego rwo kubungabunga ubukungu binyuze mu gufasha abakene ndetse no gukomeza gushyigikira ibigo bito n’ibiciriritse kugira ngo byigobotore ingaruka z’iki cyorezo. Aya mafaranga azakoreshwa muri uyu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari turimo ndetse n’umwaka utaha.

Kimwe mu bikorwa by’ingenzi bizashorwamo aya mafaranga ni Ikigega cyatangijwe na Leta y’u Rwanda cyiswe ’Economic Recovery Fund (ERF) kizashyirwamo miliyoni 200$ azafasha ibigo bito n’ibiciriritse. Bitewe n’imbaraga u Rwanda rwari rumaze iminsi rushyira mu bikorwa by’ubukerarugendo no kwakira abantu, igihugu cyari kimaze gukurura ishoramari ryagutse mu rwego rw’amahoteli, ariko amenshi muri yo akiri mashya, ndetse amwe agifite inguzanyo nini za banki zo mu Rwanda.

Ibi biteye impungenge kuko izi hoteli zishobora kunanirwa kwishyura umwenda zifite, bityo banki zikagira ibibazo bikomeye bishobora no kwangiza ubukungu bwose muri rusange, kuko izi hoteli ari umwe mu bakiliya b’imena b’izi banki. Nko kugeza muri Gashyantare umwaka ushize, inguzanyo zari zifitwe na hoteli mu Rwanda zingana na miliyari 134 Frw, zari zatswe n’ibigo 571.

Ni mu gihe urwego rw’ubukerarugendo n’amahoteli ari rumwe mu zazahajwe bikomeye na Covid-19 kandi bikazafata igihe kinini kugira ngo uru rwego rusubire ku murongo, nk’uko raporo ya Banki y’Isi ibivuga.

Baragira bati "izanzamuka ryihuse ry’urwego rw’ingenzi cyane ku Rwanda (kwakira inama mpuzamahanga, MICE) ntiryitezwe vuba kuko icyorezo cya Covid-19 gikomeje gukwirakwira mu bihugu bikize, ndetse n’ubwoba [bwo gutembera] buzakomeza kugaragara na nyuma y’iki cyorezo".

Birumvikana ko nta handi izi hoteli zari bukure ubushobozi buzatuma zihangana n’ingaruka z’iki cyorezo uretse ubufasha nk’ubu bwa Leta. Ibi kandi binagaragazwa n’uko mu mafaranga arenga miliyoni 100$ yari yagenewe urwego rw’amahoteli mu Kigega cya ERF, agera kuri 80% yari yamaze gukoreshwa kugera muri Nzeri umwaka ushize.

Mu bindi aya mafaranga azakoreshwamo harimo gukomeza gufasha imiryango yazahajwe cyane na Covid-19. Hagati ya Werurwe na Nzeri umwaka ushize, Leta yazamuye cyane umubare w’abantu yari isanzwe ifasha mu buryo bw’amikoro, ibintu byagize umumaro ukomeye kuko byagabanyije ubukene ku kigero cya 1.43% mu mwaka wa 2020. Mu gihe Leta yakomeza gufasha icyo cyiciro cy’abantu ndetse ikanagera ku ntego z’Ikigega cya ERF, byitezwe ko abandi bantu 1.75% bazava mu bukene muri uyu mwaka wa 2021.

Hagati aho, mu gihe Leta irimo gukora ibishoboka byose mu kurengera ubukungu bwazahajwe na Covid-19, amadevize igihugu cyari gisanzwe cyinjiza avuye mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga ndetse n’imisoro ikomoka imbere mu gihugu byaragabanutse, nyamara ibyo Leta itakaza mu guhangana na Covid-19 byo byarazamutse, kuko imibare yerekana ko u Rwanda rumaze gushora arenga miliyari 109 Frw mu guhangana na Covid-19.

Ibyo rero byaremye icyuho mu ngengo y’imari kingana na 9.4%, ari nayo mpamvu kugira ngo Leta ikomeze kubona amikora ayifasha gushyira mu bikorwa imigambi migari yayo y’iterambere, yafashe inguzanyo nyinshi ugereranyije n’uko byari bisanzwe mbere, aho ikigero cy’inguzanyo u Rwanda rufitiye amahanga zageze kuri 66% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu, zivuye kuri 58.1% muri 2019, mbere gato ya Covid-19. Ibi bivuze ko inguzanyo u Rwanda rwafashe mu mwaka ushize ziyongereyeho 6% ugereranyije n’uko byari biteganyijwe, ndetse ibi byatumye u Rwanda rushyirwa mu bihugu bifite umwenda uringaniye (moderate), ruvuye mu bifite umwenda muto (low) ugereranyije n’ubukungu bwabyo.

Ikigo gikora ubushakashatsi ku myenda ibihugu bifite n’ubushobozi bwabyo bwo kuyishyura, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), cyatangaje ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda butanga icyizere ku bushobozi bw’igihugu bwo kwishyura imyenda gifite ndetse no gukomeza gutera imbere muri rusange, gusa kivuga ko amezi atandatu ari imbere azerekana neza ubushobozi bw’u Rwanda kuri iyi ngingo, ndetse ko ashobora kugena niba u Rwanda ruvanwa ku inota rya B+ rwahawe umwaka ushize, rugasubizwa ku inota rya B.

Bavuze ko ibi bizagenwa n’uko ubukungu buzaba bwifashe muri uyu mwaka, bati "dushobora kumanura inota ry’u Rwanda mu mezi atandatu kugera kuri 12 ari imbere, igihe ibyo u Rwanda rwinjiza byakomeza kujya munsi y’ibipimo byateganyijwe. Nk’urugero, ibi bishobora kubaho igihe ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, ubukerarugendo ndetse n’amafaranga yoherezwa mu gihugu byarushaho kugabanuka munsi y’igipimo cyateganyijwe".

N’ubwo bimeze bitya ariko, u Rwanda rufite icyizere cyuzuye cyo kwishyura imyenda rufite ndetse ntirwigeze runasaba ko rufashwa mu guhindura amasezerano y’imyishyurire ku myenda rufite, nk’uko ibindi bihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere byabigenje ku bufatanye n’ibihugu bikize, biri mu ihuriro rya G20.

Iminsi iri imbere iteye inkeke

Uko byagenda kose, ubukungu bw’igihugu buzakomeza kuzahara mu bihe biri imbere. Nk’ubu byitezwe ko n’ubwo ubukungu buzazamuka ku mpuzandengo ya 3.9% muri uyu mwaka, ariko ikigero buzazamukaho kiri munsi ya 12% ugeranyije n’uko bwakabaye buzazamuka iyo icyorezo kitaza kubaho.

Mu mwaka wa 2025, ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwitezweho kuzatakaza 15.4% ugereranyije n’uko bwakagombye kuzazamuka iyo icyorezo cya Covid-19 kitabaho. Byitezwe ko icyo kigero gishobora kuzagera kuri 15.6% mu mwaka wa 2030.

Ibi bikazaterwa n’uko muri uyu mwaka, umusaruro w’ibyo u Rwanda rwiteguraga kuzinjiza uzagabanuka 8% ugereranyije n’ibyari biteganyijwe iyo Covid-19 itazaba kubaho. Uyu musaruro kandi uzagabanukaho 15.1% mu mwaka wa 2025 na 17.5% mu mwaka wa 2030.

Ibi kandi bizatuma icyuho kiri mu ngengo y’imari nacyo kizazamuka, kuko muri uyu mwaka kiziyongeraho 20.5% ugereranyije n’uko byari biteganyijwe iyo Covid-19 itaza kubaho, kikazagera kuri 27% mu mwaka wa 2025 na 31.7% mu mwaka wa 2030.

N'ubwo gahunda za Guma mu Rugo zari ingenzi mu guhangana na Covid-19, zazahaje cyane ubukungu bw'igihugu

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