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Covid-19 yatumbagije inguzanyo z’u Rwanda; amaherezo azaba ayahe?

Yanditswe na Ndahayo Emmanuel
Kuya 25 Kanama 2021 saa 09:12
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Kuva mu ntangiriro z’umwaka ushize, ubukungu bw’Isi bwahuye n’ihungabana ryanageze ku Rwanda kuko mu mwaka ushize, ubwarwo bwahungabanye ku kigero cya 3.4%.

Iri hungabana ry’ubukungu, rijyanye n’igabanuka ry’ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga ndetse n’igabanuka ry’umusaruro w’igihugu muri rusange, ryatumye icyuho kiri mu ngengo y’imari kigera ku 8.7% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’ingengo y’imari muri uyu mwaka nubwo byitezwe ko kizagabanuka ku kigero cya 7.5% mu mwaka utaha ndetse kikagera kuri 5.1% mu 2023/2024.

Mu rwego rwo kuziba iki cyuho, ndetse no gukomeza gushyira mu bikorwa imishinga y’iterambere, u Rwanda rwayobotse amasoko y’imbere no hanze y’igihugu, rushaka inguzanyo zikenewe cyane muri ibi bihe bikomereye ubukungu bwarwo.

Kuva muri Kamena umwaka ushize kugera muri Kamena uyu mwaka, inguzanyo z’u Rwanda ziyongereyeho 12.2% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu, zigera kuri 76.2% zivuye kuri 63.9%. Muri rusange, inguzanyo z’u Rwanda zingana na miliyari 7687.3 Frw.

Igice kinini cy’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda kigizwe n’inguzanyo ziciriritse, zingana na 86.2%, ziturutse ahanini mu bigo birimo nk’Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF) na Banki y’Isi. Izi nguzanyo uzasanga ari iz’igihe kirekire, ndetse zishyurwa ku nyungu nto cyane, ishobora no kugera kuri 0%, nk’uko bimeze ku nguzanyo ya miliyoni 200$ u Rwanda ruherutse guhabwa na IMF izishyurwa ku nyungu ya 0%.

Ku rundi ruhande, 13.8% by’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda, zatanzwe n’ibindi bigo birimo banki z’ubucuruzi n’izituruka ku isoko mpuzamahanga ry’impapuro mpeshamwenda, ari naho u Rwanda ruherutse gukura miliyoni 620$. Izi nguzanyo zikunze kuba zihenze, aho zishyurwa ku nyungu iri hejuru ya 5%, kandi zikaba ari iz’igihe gito, gikunze kuba imyaka 10.

Igice kinini cy’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda ni izo ku rwego mpuzamahanga, zingana na miliyari 5933.2 Frw kugera muri Kamena uyu mwaka. Izi nguzanyo ziyongereyeho 27.9% ugereranyije na Kamena umwaka ushize. Muri izi nguzanyo, 75% byazo bigizwe n’inguzanyo ziciriritse, 13.8% bikaba inguzanyo zatanzwe n’ibigo by’ubucuruzi mu gihe izindi 11.2% zaturutse mu bandi bafatanyabikorwa.

Kugera mu mpera z’umwaka ushize, inguzanyo zo hanze zanganaga na 32.7% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu ariko byitezwe ko uyu mwaka uzasiga zigeze kuri 37.4% byawo.

Hari kandi inguzanyo zaturutse imbere mu gihugu, zikunze gutangwa binyuze mu mpapuro mpeshamwenda Leta ishyira hanze buri kwezi. Muri Kamena uyu mwaka, izi nguzanyo zari zimaze kugera kuri miliyari 1754 Frw, zivuye kuri miliyari 1305.6 Frw muri Kamena umwaka ushize, inyongera ya 31.4%.

Muri rusange, 66.3% by’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda ni izizishyurwa mu gihe kirekire, mu gihe 33.7% byazo ari inguzanyo z’igihe kiringaniye cyangwa kigufi, mu gihe imibare yo kugera mu Ukuboza umwaka ushize, yerekana ko 50.4% by’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda zizishyurwa mu madolari, naho 25.3% zikishyurwa muri ma-Euro akoreshwa ku Mugabane w’u Burayi.

Ibikorwa by'iterambere birimo inyubako ya Kigali Convention Center biri mu byazamuye inguzanyo u Rwanda rukura mu mahanga

Ni irihe shingiro ry’icyizere cyo kwishyura?

Kuva u Rwanda rwatangira guhangana n’icyorezo cya Covid-19, hirya no hino ku mbuga nkoranyambaga hakomeje kugaruka impungenge zijyanye n’ubushobozi bw’u Rwanda mu kwishyura inguzanyo bamwe batatinye kuvuga ko ari “umurengera”.

Ibintu byarushijeho kujya habi ubwo u Rwanda rwamanurirwaga icyiciro, rukavanwa mu bihugu bifite ibyago bicye byo kunanirwa kwishyura umwenda, rugashyirwa mu bihugu bifite ibyago biringaniye.

Ikigo cya Fitch Ratings gikora ubushakashatsi ku budahangarwa bw’ubukungu bw’ibihugu ku Isi, giherutse gushyira u Rwanda mu bihugu bifite inota rya ‘B+ Negative’, ruvuye mu bihugu bifite inota rya ‘B+ Stable’. Ibi bivuze ko nubwo ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kwihagararaho, Leta ikwiye gushyiraho ingamba zizatuma bukomeza gutera gutera imbere mu minsi iri imbere, kuko hari ibyago bicye by’uko bushobora gukomwa mu nkokora.

Iki kigo kandi cyanatanze inama, kivuga ko umwe mu miti u Rwanda rukwiye gufata ari ukubaka iterambere ridashingiye ku nguzanyo ndetse no kwirinda kongera izisanzwe zihari. Ibi kandi byanagarutsweho na Banki y’Isi, muri raporo y’isesengura ry’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda iherutse gushyira hanze.

Minisitiri w’Imari n’Igenamigambi, Dr. Uzziel Ndagijimana, aherutse gutangaza ko kwiyongera kw’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda mu mwaka ushize kwari gufite ishingiro, kuko igihugu cyari gikeneye kuzanzamura ubukungu bwacyo mu gihe gito.

Yagize ati “Umwenda w’u Rwanda wari usanzwe uri mu cyiciro cyo hasi, ariko kuva mu 2020, ubwo twahuraga n’icyorezo cya Covid-19, uwo mwenda warazamutse kandi biri ngombwa kugira ngo igihugu kibone amafaranga mu guhangana n’icyorezo, yaba mu buryo bw’ubuzima, ubukungu n’imibereho myiza.”

Yongeyeho ati “Hari hakenewe amafaranga kugira ngo igihugu gihangane n’icyorezo, kandi mu gihe ubukungu bumeze nabi n’amafaranga yinjira aturutse imbere mu gihugu yagabanutse, birumvikana ko aho amafaranga agomba guturuka ari hanze.”

Mu rwego rwo kurushaho kugenzura uburemere bw’inguzanyo z’u Rwanda ndetse no kwirinda ko zishobora kuzagera ku kigero kiri hejuru cyatuma Leta ibura ubushobozi bwo kuzishyura, mu 2016 hashyizweho ingamba zizatuma u Rwanda rukomeza gufata inguzanyo, ariko zitazagira ingaruka mbi ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda mu gihe kirekire.

Icyo gihe Leta yiyemeje kujya ifata inguzanyo ziciriritse kandi z’igihe kirekire, zidashyira ubukungu bw’igihugu mu byago ibyo ari byo byose no kurushaho guteza imbere uburyo bwo kubona inguzanyo ziturutse imbere mu gihugu, aho kuba inguzanyo ziturutse hanze y’u Rwanda.

Kugeza ubu, Leta ikomeje kongera inguzanyo zituruka imbere mu gihugu, zitangwa binyuze mu mpapuro mpeshamwenda. Buri kwezi, Leta ishyira izi mpapuro ku isoko ry’imari n’imigabane, ndetse rimwe na rimwe zishyirwa hanze kabiri mu kwezi.

Mu mwaka ushize, Leta yashyize hanze impapuro mpeshamwenda inshuro 16. Izi mpapuro zikunze kuba zifite agaciro kari hagati ya miliyari 15 Frw na miliyari 20 Frw.

Ubu buryo bwo kubona inguzanyo ziturutse imbere mu gihe bwitezweho kuzafasha Leta kugira ubushobozi bwo kubona inguzanyo mu buryo bworoshye, zishobora gushorwa mu mishinga yihutirwa kandi zikazishyurwa bitagoranye, na cyane ko zizishyurwa hifashishijwe amafaranga y’u Rwanda.

Ubwitabire bw’abashoramari bifuza izi mpapuro nabwo butanga icyizere kuko buri hejuru ya 100%, ndetse n’abashoramari bato, batari ibigo by’imari nka banki, bakomeje kwiyongera, aho bugeze ku 9% by’inguzanyo u Rwanda rufite imbere mu gihugu.

Ku rundi ruhande, ibipimo mpuzamahanga byifashishwa mu kureba ubushobozi bw’igihugu gifite mu kwishyura inguzanyo, byerekana ko u Rwanda rufite ubushobozi buhambaye bwo kwishyura inguzanyo rufite, kabone nubwo icyorezo gikomeje guca ibintu.

Hari uburyo bubiri bukoreshwa mu kureba ubushobozi bw’igihugu mu kwishyura umwenda gifitiye amahanga. Ubwa mbere ni ubwo gufata umwenda wose w’igihugu, bakareba ingano yawo ugereranyije n’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu.

Ubusanzwe ibihugu bifite imyenda, bigirwa inama yo kutaguza amafaranga ari hejuru ya 55% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu mu gihe waba ugiye kwishyurirwa rimwe. Muri iki cyiciro u Rwanda ruracyari kuri 32.7% kugera mu mpera z’umwaka ushize.

Indi ngingo ya kabiri irebwaho, ni ukureba ingano y’amafaranga y’imyenda azishyurwa ku mwaka umwe, akagereranywa n’imisoro icyo gihugu cyinjiza kugira ngo harebwe ubushobozi bwo kwishyura umwenda nta bundi bufasha bukenewe.

Ibihugu bigirwa inama yo kutishyura umwenda uri hejuru ya 21% by’umusoro winjizwa. U Rwanda rwari kuri 5%, uretse ko icyorezo cya Covid-19 cyatumye uyu mubare uzamuka ukagera ku 8%, ariko ntuzigera urenga 10% nk’uko Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, BNR, John Rwangombwa yabyemeje.

Ibi kandi binajyana no kugabanya inguzanyo zihenze zikunze gutangwa na banki n’ibindi bigo by’ubucuruzi, aho mu mwaka ushize zagabanutse ku kigero cya 1.6% ari nawo murongo Leta yifuza gukomeza gukoreramo.

Ni gute u Rwanda ruri kwishyura inguzanyo rufite?

Amafaranga Leta yishyura ku nyungu yafashe hanze, yiyongereyeho 55.8% muri uyu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari, ugereranyije n’ayo yishyuraga mu myaka ibiri ishize mbere y’icyorezo cya Covid-19.

Ibi ariko ntibyatewe n’ubwiyongere bw’inguzanyo u Rwanda ruherutse gufata mu mwaka ushize, ahubwo byatewe n’uko n’ubundi igihe cyo gusonerwa ku nguzanyo zimwe na zimwe rwari rwarafashe cyari giteganyijwe kurangira muri ibi bihe, uretse ko byahuriranye n’icyorezo cya Covid-19 bikaba ngombwa rwongera inguzanyo rukura hanze.

Ibi kandi byanatewe n’uburyo ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryataye agaciro cyane mu mwaka ushize, ugereranyije n’amafaranga y’amahanga rwafashemo inguzanyo.

Mu mwaka ushize, ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryataye agaciro ku kigero kiri hejuru ya 5%, kiri hejuru y’ikigenwa na BNR ndetse kikaba ari nacyo kiri hejuru ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryatayeho agaciro kuva mu 2017.

Mu mezi arindwi ya mbere y’uyu mwaka, iri faranga ryari rimaze guta agaciro ku kigero cya 1.8%, mu gihe byitezwe ko ritazata agaciro ku kigero kirenze 2.1% muri uyu mwaka.

Ku bijyanye n’inguzanyo z’imbere mu gihugu, amafaranga u Rwanda rwishyura yiyongereyeho 37.6% mu myaka ibiri ishize, ava kuri miliyari 87.2 Frw mu 2018/2019 (mbere ya Covid-19), agera kuri miliyari 119.9 Frw buri mwaka.

Inguzanyo z’amahanga zigize 17% by’ingengo y’imari y’u Rwanda izakoreshwa muri uyu mwaka, aho zizangana na miliyari 651.5 Frw, mu gihe inkunga zingana na 16%, mu gihe amafaranga aturutse imbere, arimo n’inguzanyo z’imbere mu gihugu, angana na 67%.

Inzego zishinzwe ubukungu bw’u Rwanda, zitangaza ko myaka ibiri iri imbere, inguzanyo z’u Rwanda zizakomeza kwiyongera bitewe n’ibikorwa bya Leta byo gukomeza kuzahura ubukungu bwashegeshwe n’icyorezo cya Covid-19, ariko zikazatangira kugabanuka kuva mu 2024 kugera mu 2030, aho zizaba zingana na 65% by’ingengo y’imari.

Leta ifite ingamba zo gukomeza gufata inguzanyo zizatuma ishobora kuzahura ubukungu bwagizweho ingaruka n'icyorezo cya Covid-19

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